Is it true that the technology to get to Mars (or even the moon) has to be completely re-developed? I've heard that if they wanted to send someone to the moon it wouldn't be as simple as just knocking together another batch of Saturn Vs. I don't know why though.
The Ares V doesn't look as cool as the Saturn V, by the way. Much less like a space-rocket.
However, I'd be prepared to bet that the Chinese get there at least 10 years ahead of the Americans. (China is already committed to joint unmanned missions, with Russia, to Mars and Phobos in 2009. They've also recently announced a commitment to later manned missions to the Moon and Mars).