Bird Flu Pandemic

[magicbeatle]

As the world seems to be on the brink of a possible bird-flu pandemic that could potentially kill millions of people around the world, I wonder what your views are on this. Will it be worse than the 1919 pandemic or the plague of 1665?, How will the governments of the world combat it, and how will they prevent it's spread?. It has already killed 60 people, and unconfirmed news reports today say that it has spread to romania. Your thoughts please!

[OBonio]

We're all going to die anyway.

[magicbeatle]

Yes, nice tough guy attitude Obonio! However, if someone told you that you had three weeks to live, would you still be so indifferent about it? Serious answers please!

[andyjevs]

Personally, it frightens the life out of me....not for my sake but i have a 7 year old daughter who i would walk over burning coals for. They say it would be the 0-30 age group who would be most affected. Don't know why but i think because we live in such a clean, strile world full of anti-bacterial this and germ free that, our immune systems will just not be able to cope with it. Our only hope is that we can contain it being an island. But, it would only take one greedy idiot to go abroad and get it and pass it on.

[jno]

not sure being on an island helps - birds fly, remember. It has now reached Europe - some ducks in Romania, probably infected by migrating birds from Siberia.

[netibiza]

Well, it was worse for me!!!!

[frizzytwig]

Has this not been the focus of the newspapers every year for the last 3 years.  It is scarey, and as with andyjevs, I have 2 kids so worry for them.  As for being an island, TB has made a come back so I don't think that will keep us safe. I'm just gonna go mad with the multi vitamins to try and keep our immune system going as best as I can.  What else can you do, I doubt there are any jabs you can have for it, and even if there was I doubt with our third world NHS we would get it. 

[pamnez]

I read in one of the daily newspapers last week that one of the best defences against this disease is to wash your hands.  Just wash them time and time again.  Don't know if this was a wind up or a genuine piece of advice.

[maggie01]

If its not this you have to worry about there be something else in the media. I think you have to be aware but theres no point getting too wound up about it. I 

[Robinia]

 I worry for my family (& myself) about every nasty virus that's going about!   I daresay I'd be paranoid if I heard that bird flu was on it's way to my area.

When was it worse for you neti? In 1665? - tell us about it. ;-)

[scubadiver]

The 1919 pandemic strain was a particularly virulent strain (H1N1), so we would be unlucky if the new pandemic strain resulted in as high a mortality rate.

The situation  at the moment is that there have been over 120 cases of avian flu strain H5N1 infecting humans in South East Asia, mainly due to large numbers of small scale farmers who live in very close proximity to their livestock, including birds. The H5N1 strain has crossed the species barrier into humans, resulting in around 60 deaths. As of yet, there have been no cases of human to human transmission. This will require an "antigenic shift" of the H5N1 strain, to something that can readily be passed between humans.

When this happens, the WHO will type the new strain and inform vaccine manufacturers to start making vaccine to the new strain. The vaccine will take at least 3 months to produce - the problem is that this will probably be too late to prevent a lot of cases and infection worldwide, resulting in a lot of deaths. Hence the reason governments are stockpiling antivirals, which may lessen the course of the infection, once caught.

The concern is, that as in previous pandemics, those with healthy immune systems, ie  20-45 year olds, may be at risk from an excessive immune reaction to the virus when it enters the lungs, leading to a "cytokine shower" which will basically cause the lungs to become filled with fluid leading to possible death within 24-48 hours.

Mortality rates will still be high amongst the very young and very old as well.

[scubadiver]

The best defence is to stay at home, avoid crowds of people, and wait it out. (It is probable that schools, sports matches etc would be cancelled )

The government has pandemic flu preparedeness plan put together and there is already a priority list for any vaccine- healthcare workers are first, followed by emergency service workers etc. As the last several pandemics have been at intervals of between 11 and 37 years and we are already 35 years since the last one, this is the reason for  the high level of concern over the avian flu outbreak - that it is indeed the precursor to the next pandemic.

Sorry that this is so long a post. HTH

[scubadiver]

Oh. by the way, estimates are that a quarter of the UK population would catch the virus, with anything up to 50,000 excess deaths in the UK and 50,000,000 excess deaths worldwide.

[qapmoc]

Hey Scubadiver, what do you mean by EXCESS deaths, any death especially if its me is an excess death.   Seriously, if H5N1 becomes human-human transmitted we better watch out, in 1918 the flu hit every country in the world and there were NO, NONE, ZERO planes except paper kites with engines and guns. Now somebody can get the flu in China or Turkey (todays News) and be in the UK the next day, the USA the next day Etc....  and you can bet if it starts then people will try to get away from it and take it with them where they go and spread it even faster.

[scubadiver]

By "excess", I mean deaths due to flu over and above what would be seen in a normal year due to "non pandemic" flu strains.

[Kat535]

Scubadiver - that's really useful and informative info and I for one am grateful for your knowledge (and that's genuine not sarcastic!).  My view is that if the virus gets here, it gets here, and me and my family will worry about it then (possibly hysterically, I'm not good in a crisis).  Until then i'll continue to enjoy life, thank God i'm not in an area prone to earthquakes , volcanos or tidal waves and make the most of the time I've got.  Having said that, i am the worlds worst hypochondriac and am feeling a little sniffly already.....

[Davis McBain]

Is there a particular reason why people find these statements scientifically or factually incorrect?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4341496.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4340994.stm

[piccadilly]

I think it's all media driven anxiety, to get people paranoid,I'm tempted to say nothing will happen, and also all this tripe about this winter will be very severe, rubbish!

[flubber]

I am not panicking but I am very watchful of this. I think it is a nasty if it transfers to humans and the government have a cute knack of pre-warning without shouting "panic". You can catch a cold or flu from the air so it's logical to get a nasty strain - what can be done? well not a lot.

Flu jabs actually give me flu (two jabs and two cases of me having flu in my life) so I agree its a wash hands job, take vitamin C (you get from fruit) eat well and so on.

For the life of me I don't understand why the adverts say "at the first symptoms of flu get to your doctors" because if anyone had it they would sit and infect a whole surgery of people waiting. I think birds will be safe here and we won't catch it from eating poultry, but I do believe it will arrive - flu is a killer anyhow so bird flu makes no difference apart from its name.