93% Of Conserative Members Don't Think They Will Win The Next Ction

[Gromit]

A survey by Lord Ashcroft's ConservativeHome blog found...

// Only 7% of Tories think they can win the next election while three-quarters think Ed Miliband will be PM

Survey of 1,800 Tory members reveals huge drop in number who beleive party can win in 2015

In March last year 23% thought an outright majority was possible, but it has fallen to 7% now

The ConservativeHome survey reveals most now predict a Labour win //

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2290640/Only-7-Tories-think-Cameron-win-election-quarters-think-Ed-Miliband-PM.html

Any ABers disagree with that survey?

[maggiebee]

93% Of Conservative Members Don't Think - should have stopped the sentence there Gromit!

[Sqad]

No I feel that it is going to be very difficult for the Conservatives to get an overall majority.

\\The ConservativeHome survey reveals most now predict a Labour win // \\\

mmmm! I think that the Labour Party has just as big a problem to get an overall majority as do the Conservatives.

[bazwillrun]

well if you think its good news that milliband and his lot will be running things, take a step back.

If things are bad now then you 'aint seen nothing yet, Labour will drag this country even deeper into the mire, just as they always do

[Baldric]

So 7% of approx 1.3% of Party membership don't think etc!

[rojash]

Given that 100% of Conservative members chose the wrong party, I'd say that's bad news.

[DangerUXD]

what is there to agree/disagree with? Any view van be supported by digging up appropriate statistics.

[pdq1]

I think that is fairly obvious. UKIP are taking a sizeable proportion of the Tory vote and could Clegg possibly campaign of doing another coalition with the Tories. Maybe Clegg will keep the electorate guessing depending who has the highest of the other two then switch allegiences to them.

Personally I think we will either have a Con/UKIP coalition or a Lab/Lib one

[emmie]

so i don't think, or count, strange that..

[mikey4444]

2010 election :::

Con 306
Lab 258
Lib 57

Loony Tunes and others 29

Its difficult to see how the Tories CAN win an election out-right in 2015. We should remember that they didn't win outright in 2010 either, relying instead on the 57 Liberal MPs, to sell their souls to the Devil, in order that Cameron was able to take the trip up the Mall to have Afternoon Tea with the Queen.

The Libs perhaps have now learned the old lesson that if you are going to sup with the Devil, you had better have a very long spoon indeed.

Most of the votes for the Libs in 2010 came from traditional Liberal Voters. It must have come as a shock to these people that actually, they might as well have voted Tory, for all the good it did them. Given the present scandals with the Libs, its difficult to see that they would vote Lib in as many numbers in 2015 as they did in 2010.

So it will be back to the usual Con-Lab contest. The Tories are very behind in the polls compared with Labour, and while polls can't be entirely relied upon, it would be very odd and unprecedented if every single poll was wrong.

So I predict a win for Labour, albeit with perhaps a small majority. The Libs will dance about as usual, getting ready to brown-nose pretty much anybody in order not to be left in the doldrums that their Party has been in since before the Second World War. It worth bearing in mind that the Libs had single figure representation in Parliament for years and years. They actually lost 5 seats in 2010 !

UKIP also has the Tories worried. They might be as mad as a box of frogs, and they will almost certainly not win many seats, if any in 2015. But they will take many more votes away from the Tories that they will take from Labour. If it hadn't been for UKIP, the Eastleigh might very well have gone to the Tories.

No wonder Ashcroft is worried !

[bazwillrun]

"They might be as mad as a box of frogs"

why, because they dont want this country taken over to become a resource to be milked and ruled by the eussr, if thats your definition of mad then lets hope it gets worse

[pdq1]

I'd rather be called that than one of Eton's rich posh boys.

[mikey4444]

Every vote for UKIP is another nail in the Tories coffin, so bring on the mad frogs !

[DangerUXD]

Baz, didn't you realise that unless you are anti British you have one of the prescribed insults/names assigned to you by our left wing friends, it's a sort of tradition. Don't agree with EU subjugation? arise little Englander etc!