ChatterBank7 mins ago
Do You Think There Will Be Another Lockdown?
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Hi there
Do you think there will be another lockdown this winter. I am in Scotland. I will be devastated if there is. I have organised a 50th Birthday party for myself early January. I see so many people not wearing masks on public transport or shops and a lot of unvaccinated people. It really infuriates me. I will have had booster by this time tomorrow
Do you think there will be another lockdown this winter. I am in Scotland. I will be devastated if there is. I have organised a 50th Birthday party for myself early January. I see so many people not wearing masks on public transport or shops and a lot of unvaccinated people. It really infuriates me. I will have had booster by this time tomorrow
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//How many are isolating then, 30-40,000 or a much lower number?//
Don't know. I've seen estimates that vary between 20% and 50% who are failing to do so. Doesn't really matter. The government expects them all to comply and that strategy is unsustainable. There is no reason to test people who are not ill.
Don't know. I've seen estimates that vary between 20% and 50% who are failing to do so. Doesn't really matter. The government expects them all to comply and that strategy is unsustainable. There is no reason to test people who are not ill.
People can test positive for Covid-19 for up to 3 months after having the virus. Therefore it is not impossible to have asymptomatic Covid-19 (and know nothing about it), get a common cold 2 months thereafter and test positive for Covid-19 on a PCR.
As for the number of deaths from coronavirus, we all know how hugely misleading those figures are. People may die within 28 days of testing positive (and possibly have actually had the virus a couple of months previously) but are not necessarily dying FROM Covid-19.
This thing is never going to go away. Your best option is to get double vaccinated, have your boosters in a timely manner and get on with your life.
I hope we are not living in utter pandemonium with this in the coming years.
As for the number of deaths from coronavirus, we all know how hugely misleading those figures are. People may die within 28 days of testing positive (and possibly have actually had the virus a couple of months previously) but are not necessarily dying FROM Covid-19.
This thing is never going to go away. Your best option is to get double vaccinated, have your boosters in a timely manner and get on with your life.
I hope we are not living in utter pandemonium with this in the coming years.
Peter Pedant has explained this to Newjudge several times the corbyloon and i tried but he's position doesnt change and wouldnt even if his GP or an eminent medical professional or scientist told him or if he's employer required a weekly negative test.
I can understand he's concern if the tests costs £100 a shot and people were doing it daily but if it identifies a few hundred thousand people each week who didnt realise there infected and they do what there advised to do not just ignore it and carry on then its worthwhile
I can understand he's concern if the tests costs £100 a shot and people were doing it daily but if it identifies a few hundred thousand people each week who didnt realise there infected and they do what there advised to do not just ignore it and carry on then its worthwhile
No not south of the border
Boris has done his - over my dead body bit - in his case over some other peoples dead bodies.
Nicola - ( bless ) with her obsession with a Nation in Waiting may well feel, that in order to be different the Scots needs the smack of a good lockdown
Not taking bets
This is now a political decision see above - Holland may be locking down because their numbers are nearing Englands in terms of dead people. This is not their agenda at all. The Dutch are very good at this ( low numbers ) and the English are very bad ( dead people everywhere) - so they Certainly dont Want to have an english mortality oh no.
Think of NJ's covid=flu obviously. But the bliddy English dont seem to realise it and insist on dying, dammit, magnified 60 m times and you get the Dutch view
Boris has done his - over my dead body bit - in his case over some other peoples dead bodies.
Nicola - ( bless ) with her obsession with a Nation in Waiting may well feel, that in order to be different the Scots needs the smack of a good lockdown
Not taking bets
This is now a political decision see above - Holland may be locking down because their numbers are nearing Englands in terms of dead people. This is not their agenda at all. The Dutch are very good at this ( low numbers ) and the English are very bad ( dead people everywhere) - so they Certainly dont Want to have an english mortality oh no.
Think of NJ's covid=flu obviously. But the bliddy English dont seem to realise it and insist on dying, dammit, magnified 60 m times and you get the Dutch view
The daily death figures that are announced may be slightly misleading given that it's a "deaths within 28 days", but not "hugely". That measure is currently comparable to (and therefore clearly compatible with) the "excess deaths" figure, as far as I can tell. Even the daily death totals are clearly compatible with the high number of cases, both in terms of broadly tracking its undulations and being broadly proportional when you consider the impact of vaccination.
In that sense, whilst I don't doubt that LadyCG's comments are correct, they don't change the picture much; and I do support her final points. We have a high number of cases (but currently on a downwards trends), but the vaccination programme has clearly had the intended impact.
In that sense, whilst I don't doubt that LadyCG's comments are correct, they don't change the picture much; and I do support her final points. We have a high number of cases (but currently on a downwards trends), but the vaccination programme has clearly had the intended impact.
//Are they not infectious still?//
Of course they are. But if this country is going to revert to some semblance of normality then testing people who are showing no symptoms of anything is not normal.
//I can understand he's concern if the tests costs £100 a shot and people were doing it daily but if it identifies a few hundred thousand people each week who didnt realise there infected and they do what there advised to do not just ignore it and carry on then its worthwhile//
Why is it? What will it achieve? It may prevent them passing it on to others for a few days. But why should that matter? The virus will spread. The only people who need to make specific efforts to avoid it are those whose immune system is not up to par or those who are in the vulnerable categories but not vaccinated. This entire strategy is predicated on the notion that virus can be contained. It cannot.
Of course they are. But if this country is going to revert to some semblance of normality then testing people who are showing no symptoms of anything is not normal.
//I can understand he's concern if the tests costs £100 a shot and people were doing it daily but if it identifies a few hundred thousand people each week who didnt realise there infected and they do what there advised to do not just ignore it and carry on then its worthwhile//
Why is it? What will it achieve? It may prevent them passing it on to others for a few days. But why should that matter? The virus will spread. The only people who need to make specific efforts to avoid it are those whose immune system is not up to par or those who are in the vulnerable categories but not vaccinated. This entire strategy is predicated on the notion that virus can be contained. It cannot.
// the vaccination programme has clearly had the intended impact. //
We currently have more daily deaths than we did last November when no one was vaccinated.
We have nearly 70% vaccinated but the figure for daily deaths now is similar to last year.
The next 3-3 months will be critical.
Last year they quickly got to 1000+ a day. We will see if vaccination stops that.
We currently have more daily deaths than we did last November when no one was vaccinated.
We have nearly 70% vaccinated but the figure for daily deaths now is similar to last year.
The next 3-3 months will be critical.
Last year they quickly got to 1000+ a day. We will see if vaccination stops that.
//We currently have more daily deaths than we did last November when no one was vaccinated.//
Do we?
//…but the figure for daily deaths now is similar to last year.//
Is it?
The current seven day average of daily deaths is 156. The average for the last 30 days is 153. The corresponding figures for 13th November 2020 are 404 and 271. Not only are this year’s figures considerably lower but the difference in the 7 day and 30 day figures show that in mid November 2020 the number of deaths were showing a steep rise (which, if you recall, led eventually to a “cancelled Christmas”). That cannot be said from this year’s figures.
Do we?
//…but the figure for daily deaths now is similar to last year.//
Is it?
The current seven day average of daily deaths is 156. The average for the last 30 days is 153. The corresponding figures for 13th November 2020 are 404 and 271. Not only are this year’s figures considerably lower but the difference in the 7 day and 30 day figures show that in mid November 2020 the number of deaths were showing a steep rise (which, if you recall, led eventually to a “cancelled Christmas”). That cannot be said from this year’s figures.
//the virus will spread//
Well it certainly will if infected people carry on as normal and well be more likely to get variants. Seems obvious to me maybe too obvious to you that if the infected selfv isolate for 10 days the spread will be much lower and the virus us going to struggle to find new hosts and will dwindle pretty much as others did in the past.
Well it certainly will if infected people carry on as normal and well be more likely to get variants. Seems obvious to me maybe too obvious to you that if the infected selfv isolate for 10 days the spread will be much lower and the virus us going to struggle to find new hosts and will dwindle pretty much as others did in the past.
one thing that Gromit is missing, though, is the trajectory. We've been at something hovering between 100 and 170 deaths/day since the start of September, ie for just over two months. The same period last year saw the UK's death rate climb from 8 to over 400, most of which rise occurred in October. Incidentally, then, the claim that we have even as many deaths currently as last November, let alone more, is false (unless you selected a specific day or pair of days, which is of course artificial given reporting variations).
NJ and I have clashed on the correct response to Covid many times in the past, and will presumably continue to do so, but in this case on a raw figures analysis I can't understand the point Gromit's making, and I can easily understand NJ's. It's either simply wrong, or at the very least a careless misinterpretation.
NJ and I have clashed on the correct response to Covid many times in the past, and will presumably continue to do so, but in this case on a raw figures analysis I can't understand the point Gromit's making, and I can easily understand NJ's. It's either simply wrong, or at the very least a careless misinterpretation.
//Well it certainly will if infected people carry on as normal…//
As it will if they don’t.
//if the infected selfv isolate for 10 days the spread will be much lower…//
It will simply be slower. It will be delayed, that’s all. Meantime the damage that various restrictions are wreaking on individuals, businesses and the economy will simply increase. It is clear that the damage caused over the last 18 months is enormous in terms of finance, health and general wellbeing. That damage cannot be allowed to get any worse.
No other pandemic in history has been handled in the way this one has. It has been an experiment in mass restrictions on civil liberties. It must continue for no longer than absolutely necessary and the constant threat of revived restrictions must end. Unceasing calls for people to wear face coverings and refrain from close contact are entirely unwarranted for a disease that, for the vast majority of those who contract it, will cause no problems whatsoever.
As it will if they don’t.
//if the infected selfv isolate for 10 days the spread will be much lower…//
It will simply be slower. It will be delayed, that’s all. Meantime the damage that various restrictions are wreaking on individuals, businesses and the economy will simply increase. It is clear that the damage caused over the last 18 months is enormous in terms of finance, health and general wellbeing. That damage cannot be allowed to get any worse.
No other pandemic in history has been handled in the way this one has. It has been an experiment in mass restrictions on civil liberties. It must continue for no longer than absolutely necessary and the constant threat of revived restrictions must end. Unceasing calls for people to wear face coverings and refrain from close contact are entirely unwarranted for a disease that, for the vast majority of those who contract it, will cause no problems whatsoever.
Weird logic from NJ goes against all medical advice and gov advice. No thinks the infected should just go out or work as normal for the sake of the economy . Well that will make things worse on the long run and may mean s lockdown is needed afterall all. Again someone who thinks they know better than the experts is wrong.
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