ChatterBank1 min ago
Do You Think There Will Be Another Lockdown?
113 Answers
Hi there
Do you think there will be another lockdown this winter. I am in Scotland. I will be devastated if there is. I have organised a 50th Birthday party for myself early January. I see so many people not wearing masks on public transport or shops and a lot of unvaccinated people. It really infuriates me. I will have had booster by this time tomorrow
Do you think there will be another lockdown this winter. I am in Scotland. I will be devastated if there is. I have organised a 50th Birthday party for myself early January. I see so many people not wearing masks on public transport or shops and a lot of unvaccinated people. It really infuriates me. I will have had booster by this time tomorrow
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Re. OP --- no, there is no justification for it. Vaccinated and unvaccinated people can spread Covid. Vast majority of vaccinated people don't die. Numbers game now. May as well get on with things.
If you are vaccinated - you have no real cause to moan about the unvaccinated (I'm vaccinated, OK!). I could still catch Covid and still pass it on, or even die. We do the best we can and we can't hide ourselves away for ever. The negative effects of that are horrendous.
We had a wonderful holiday in Scotland in September - except that such a lot was still closed. Typical notice dated January '21 read 'Museum closed for the rest of the year,due to Covid.' They were still taking your temperature when you went into a restaurant! There was a lot of resentment and Covid numbers were still higher than England!
If you are vaccinated - you have no real cause to moan about the unvaccinated (I'm vaccinated, OK!). I could still catch Covid and still pass it on, or even die. We do the best we can and we can't hide ourselves away for ever. The negative effects of that are horrendous.
We had a wonderful holiday in Scotland in September - except that such a lot was still closed. Typical notice dated January '21 read 'Museum closed for the rest of the year,due to Covid.' They were still taking your temperature when you went into a restaurant! There was a lot of resentment and Covid numbers were still higher than England!
Taking specific data points without looking at the broader context is the exact definition of "cherry picking". That's what you're doing by picking one day in November 2020, or one day in April this year, or only two points. For example, it's true that there has been a rise in deaths since restrictions ended, but it's been nothing like as dramatic as the corresponding rise in cases, and indeed has levelled out in the last few weeks. To ignore that trend, especially when trying to compare with the similar, uncontrolled rises in death rate we saw last year, can only be described as cherry-picking.
I'm not even wanting to disagree with you that the recent approach to Covid has been too complacent, or that we're too tolerant of what is still an excess in deaths, albeit not one anywhere close the scale of last Winter. Too, the picture may well change at any moment due to such possible confounding factors as a new variant, or if a flu wave and Covid wave coincide. But all such arguments are weakened if they are attached to a dubious interpretation of the data that seems to amount, in essence, to arguing that we're no better off now than we were a year ago. This is not true, and I don't see that it's helpful to suggest otherwise. The pandemic is not over, but in the UK at least it seems reasonable to be optimistic that the worst has passed.
Right now, to be sure, it's fair to say that my views are somewhat coloured by how dire things are looking closer to my current locale. Where I am, the daily death rate is 55 and rising uncontrollably, which, when scaled to the UK's population, is equivalent to around 950/day. This is around five to six times worse than the UK's recent peak, and it's going in the wrong direction. This owes a lot to, among other factors, how few people have been vaccinated (less than half the population, as far as I can tell), and how unseriously some have treated the pandemic in recent months. Nor is this country alone in having a bad time of it: much of Eastern Europe is suffering another wave, and will probably continue to suffer from repeated high-toll Covid waves for some time yet if they don't get their act together.
I'm not even wanting to disagree with you that the recent approach to Covid has been too complacent, or that we're too tolerant of what is still an excess in deaths, albeit not one anywhere close the scale of last Winter. Too, the picture may well change at any moment due to such possible confounding factors as a new variant, or if a flu wave and Covid wave coincide. But all such arguments are weakened if they are attached to a dubious interpretation of the data that seems to amount, in essence, to arguing that we're no better off now than we were a year ago. This is not true, and I don't see that it's helpful to suggest otherwise. The pandemic is not over, but in the UK at least it seems reasonable to be optimistic that the worst has passed.
Right now, to be sure, it's fair to say that my views are somewhat coloured by how dire things are looking closer to my current locale. Where I am, the daily death rate is 55 and rising uncontrollably, which, when scaled to the UK's population, is equivalent to around 950/day. This is around five to six times worse than the UK's recent peak, and it's going in the wrong direction. This owes a lot to, among other factors, how few people have been vaccinated (less than half the population, as far as I can tell), and how unseriously some have treated the pandemic in recent months. Nor is this country alone in having a bad time of it: much of Eastern Europe is suffering another wave, and will probably continue to suffer from repeated high-toll Covid waves for some time yet if they don't get their act together.
jim (talking about gromit) //But all such arguments are weakened if they are attached to a dubious interpretation of the data that seems to amount, in essence, to arguing that we're no better off now than we were a year ago. This is not true, and I don't see that it's helpful to suggest otherwise.// - well put Jim and bang on.
I may be wrong but I believe tomus agrees that vaccines have made a difference. It seems one or two parties on here don’t and are comparing this November (when deaths and hospital cases are fairly stable) with this time last year (when both were increasing swiftly, leading to a Christmas lockdown that lasted five months, deaths to peak at more than 1,200 a day and hospital cases to exceed 40,000).
In the first half of November last year hospital cases increased from 11,500 to 15,500 and daily deaths increased from 260 to 400. For the same period this year the number in hospital decreased from 9,600 to 8,600 and daily deaths reduced from 157 to 156.
Of course there may be other factors in play, but if I was asked to guess the reason for the difference, I would say the vaccine programme has played a big part. But then, of course, I'm (often accused on here of being) a Covid denier.
In the first half of November last year hospital cases increased from 11,500 to 15,500 and daily deaths increased from 260 to 400. For the same period this year the number in hospital decreased from 9,600 to 8,600 and daily deaths reduced from 157 to 156.
Of course there may be other factors in play, but if I was asked to guess the reason for the difference, I would say the vaccine programme has played a big part. But then, of course, I'm (often accused on here of being) a Covid denier.
I refer the Honourable Members to my OP on Nov 7th. And I commend it to the House!
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I believe that some people want a full lockdown. It's great to be able to report that nosey git accross the street, to the police. Besides, there are those who are Johnson Sychophants. He can do no wrong. And there are those who want a lockdown. You do, don't you? You do! You do!
https:/
I believe that some people want a full lockdown. It's great to be able to report that nosey git accross the street, to the police. Besides, there are those who are Johnson Sychophants. He can do no wrong. And there are those who want a lockdown. You do, don't you? You do! You do!
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