Cheltenham Festival - 15 To 18 Mar 2022

[Ken4155]

Should you hear an almighty roar at around 1.30 tomorrow afternoon, you will know that the Festival has begun. I have no doubt there will be some exciting races ahead but my enthusiasm is slightly tempered by the scarcity of handicap races - my fav source of interest. There are just 2 on Tue, Wed and Fri with 3 on Thurs, so i may have Lucky 15/e.w. acca bets running over 2 days?
If you intend to have a punt at the Festival, the very best of luck to you:-)

[Togo]

Morning Ken, an early start for me(see Ellie's thread) Done the Itv7 and E/W Acca, Win Doubles, and Trebles. Goiod luck all. I will save my luck for the important punt later this week.

Mighty Potter @7/1 1.30CH* (hard to ignore Jonbon, but had too)
Astra Via 1.50S.
Riviere D'etel @9/2 2.10CH*
Coral Blue 2.30S.
Frodon @12/1 2.50CH (E/W single)
Teahupoo @10/1 3.30CH*
Queens Brook @4/1 3.10CH* ( free £5 bet 365)

[DTCwordfan]

I've just put up a forecast for Togo based on his sojourn later in hossie - its on Emmie's GMEB thread.

[Ken4155]

Just read it, DTC, and you almost had me looking. The fact there isn't a 2.30 at Chelters was the only thing that stopped me :-)

[Ken4155]

Best of luck with your selections, Togo. Haven't had a proper look yet and am just off into town to pick up a Racing Post - cuts down the time searching for stats-related performances, etc.
Talk to you again when you've had the 'stent' fitted.

[Ken4155]

Well, the RP may have cut down the time spent searching for the stats but it's still taken me 2 and a half hours to settle on the selections below.
The 1.30 is a nightmare, despite the smallish field (and even smaller number of those in with a real shot of winning it) and i must have changed my mind half a dozen times.
In the 4.50, Gaelic Warrior may turn out to be the best thing since sliced bread but i simply cannot back a 5/2 fav in a 22 runner handicap at the Festival, even if it is trained by the Master, himself.
In fact, from a betting point of view, (for me at least) tonight's 2 meetings are much more interesting - 9 handicaps with 8 or more runners (6 of those at Southwell).
So the slide rule and protractor have been put away until tomorrow, and, for better or worse (in sickness and in health) these are the animals that will be carrying my money, today;

1.30 Che; Jonbon @ 5/1 - £5 free bet Sky
2.10 Che; Blue Lord @ 5/1 - 4 places (£2 win)
4.10 Che; Stormy Ireland @ 9/2 - 5 places (£2 win) Rf/c with Queen's Brook

£1 Patent, £1 e.w. Treble. 3 placed = £10, 3 winners = £574

2.30 Sed; Desaray Girl @ 10/3 - 4 places
2.50 Che; Does He Know @ 14/1 - 7 places (£2 win single)
3.10 Sed; Just Call Me Al @ 5/2
4.50 Che; HMS Seahorse @ 9/1 - 6 places (£5 free bet 365)

20p Lucky 15, £1.50 e.w. acca. 4 placed = £23, 4 winners = £2,768

3.30 Che; £3 win Teahuptoo @ 7/2 (w/o fav)

ITV7, those above qualifiers plus; Obey The Rules and Honeysuckle.
£1.50 e.w. acca.

Che Placepot; 4-1-3-10-10-10

And he very best of luck to anyone risking their hard-earned/ill-gotten :-))

[lankeela]

Stage Star 1.30 Wednesday - one of my Owner's Group horses!

[Ken4155]

Up against a Mullins hotpot, Lanky:-(
Mind you, 15/2 isn't such a bad e.w. price :-)

[lankeela]

Seen 8/1 in places. Will give a good account of himself.

[Ken4155]

Done the two Henderson runners in a rev f/c in the opener.

[Ken4155]

^
Wrong way round as regards my Patent but just over £31 back for the forecast (£2.30 rev f/c).

Going again with Blue Lord and Edwardstone in the 2.10

[Ken4155]

I ended up putting £2 wins on both the Sedgefield horses in my L15 bet; Desaray Girl won @ 4s, Just Call Me Al ran 3rd @ 3s. Also, after listening to AP state that while both Honeysuckle and Appreciate it would most likely beat Epatante, he didn't think any of the others would, i stuck £1.50 e.w. on the Henderson horse which ran a gallant 2nd @ 16/1.

Therefore on day 1 of the Festival, i made a very moderate profit which, for two and a half hours work, doesn't even match minimum wage.

Hopeful of better tomorrow.

[Ken4155]

I've been casting my eye over today's opener and i may have found a chink in the 7 year old Sir Gerhard's armour. Since 1974, there have been over 100 entrants aged 7 or over and all bar one (French Holly - 1998) were beaten. Add to that the fact the odds on fav has yet to prove his stamina over this distance and the 'shield of invincibility' appears to have one or two holes.
All 17 winners of The Challow Hurdle (over today's distance)who have contested this race have been beaten, though 9 of them finished 2nd or 3rd. Paul Nicholls' Stage Star won this season's Challow almost at a canter and has been waited with for this race.
365 are offering 9/1 for Stage Star (enhanced win only price) but Sky are offering stake back as cash if your selection finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th! Barring a fall, i cannot see Stage Star not filling one of the first five places so i've had a fiver on @ 17/2 in the hope that he is the first Challow Hurdle winner to take this crown also.
However, when it comes to the ITV7 and the Placepot, i will most likely stick Sir Gerhard's name in there :-/

[Ken4155]

Thanks, i will:-)

[Ken4155]

2.10 Che; Farouk D'Allene @ 9/1 - 4 places (£5 free bet)
2.30 Hun; Global Famenglory @ 16/1 - 5 places (£1 e.w.)
2.50 Che; Indigo Breeze @ 18/1 - 8 places (£1 e.w.)
4.50 Che; Elixir De Nutz @ 16/1 - 6 places (£1 e.w.)

20p L15, £1 e.w. acca. 4 paced = £181, 4 winners = £55,579.

ITV7; above 4 horses plus Sir Gerhard, Shishkin and Facile Vega £1 e.w. acca.

Rev f/c; Farouk D'Allene & Beacon Edge - 2.10 Che
Rev f/c; Indigo Breeze & Saint Felicien - 2.50 Che

Cheltenham placepot; 6-6-20-7-15-9

Best of luck, all.

[Ken4155]

Odds on jolly stays the distance and kicks the stats into touch. Stage Star ran a stinker!
At least the ITV 7 and placepot are still going :-J

[Ken4155]

All i had to show for today's endeavours was a little bit of each way money courtesy of Indigo Beach who scraped home in 8th place. The change in the going didn't help matters, certainly as regards Stage Star in the first and Shishkin in the big 'un. Nicholls said in hindsight that he should have pulled the horse out of the 1.30. A terrible decision by him, then, to leave the horse in the race. And yes, i'm talking through my pocket:-(

[Ken4155]

2.10 Che; Sassy Yet Classy @ 12/1 - 8 places
3.30 Che; Flooring Porter @ 4/1 - 4 places
4.10 Che; Grand Paradis @ 8/1 - 6 places & £5 free bet
5.30 Che; Mister Coffey @ 12/1 - 6 places

Win singles, 20p L15 (+ 20p e.w. acca using the odd 40p in my account), £1 e.w. acca. 4 placed = £95, 4 winners = £11,023.

Placepot; 3-6-1-2-10-11

ITV7, above 4 horses plus Galopin Des Champs, Wrecking Ball Paul and I Don't Get It. Too many 'shorties' for an e.w. acca.

Looking for a few Reverse forecasts or each way single bets.

Best of luck, all.

[Togo]

Hi ken just sorting a punt whilst I try to control the anger. Am back home as my op was cancelled late last nigh after I was all prepped for an 8am admission to theatre. No icu beds available ... they say. I have since found out that at least 6 ops have been cancelled in the last 2 days in the same specialist hospital. Grrr.

[Ken4155]

Welcome back, T:-)

£1 e.w Kansas City Chief @ 22/1 2.10 Che - 8 places
£1 e.w. Lisnagar Oscar @ 33/1 3.30 Che - 4 places
£1 e.w. Impervious @ 25/1 4.50 Che
£1 e.w. Cambard @ 33/1 5.30 Che - 6 places

Rev forecast Grand Paradis and Imperial Alcazar 4.10 Che

Best of luck, all