Ukip

[merylpeep]

what chance of UKIP winning the 2015 General Election?

[Retrochic]

You could have asked that question four years ago substituting 'Lib Dems' and probably would have got the same answers -and look what happened. Of course they won't win but they will have a significant amount of seats taken from all parties not just the Conservatives.

[mikey4444]

1 million to one is my best estimate. But I can't find a bookie that will accept my fiver though.

[Old_Geezer]

They all think the UKIP are dead certs then ?

[ChillDoubt]

The chances of UKIP winning ANY election in the next 20 years is nil.
----------------
That's a bold statement considering their meteoric rise over the last 18 months. Didn't recent events, public opinion and the Euro elections register with you?
As you claimed they won't win ANY election, I take it that they won't win any by election at any time in the next 20 years then?

[BlackadderV]

Realistically speaking, UKIP have as much chance as I have of getting my leg over tonight.

[youngmafbog]

They wont win it. For starters tgey dont have tge funds and manpower to do it.
what tgey could do though is hold a balance of power,much like tge lub dems did, still a low probability but possible, especially with attutudes like zacs and mickey here promptjng people to get out and vote just to poke them in the eye.
So, they wont win outright(just as well as they lackthe exerience to run a country at present) but they could 'win' by getting into a coalition.

[sp1814]

A coalition would be interesting. I assume Farage would go with the Tories, and if, so would demand Cameron steps down.

In that situation, who would take over as leader of the Conservatives?

I'm thinking Theresa May is the most likely candidate, because from what I've read, she has broad support across the ranks of the party, but might she be a little to liberal (with a small 'L') for Nigel's tastes?

[grumpy01]

If they win a number of seats at the forthcoming election will the MP's behave as childishly as they do at the European parliament? Namely turning their backs on the anthem and otherwise just turning up to receive their very generous salaries.

[Canary42]

I am old enough to remember Orpington 1962 by-election (Lib gain fron Con) - "Liberal revival imminent" screamed the headlines.

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

[Canary42]

*from

[jourdain2]

No chance, except by holding the balance of power, IMO - but the analogy with the electoral rise of the Nazi party shows it can be done quickly from a low electoral base. NO, I definitely do not compare Ukip to Nazis, before anyone leaps in!
Telephoned a friend of mine this aft., who lives not too far from Ashford, Kent (moved back from France 2 years ago) and she said 'I honestly think nearly all of Kent will vote Ukip at the election from what I hear people saying'.

[Old_Geezer]

Obviously not grumpy. They disapprove of the EU not the UK.

[Gromit]

My prediction is that the SNP will have far more seats than UKIP after the general election. They will be Kingmaker if the election is close, not UKIP.

[mikey4444]

You may be right Gromit, and if that happens, then it looks very bad for dave, as Ms Sturgeon has already stated that she will not work with the Tories.

But as the referendum was soundly defeated in Scotland, I wouldn't be so sure that the SNP will take all those seats in the first place. They lost the vote, after all.

[sandyRoe]

Would most people really know if they had a good or bad MP? I'd guess lots of people wouldn't even know who their MP is.
UKIP have no chance of winning the general election but they might be kingmakers. They could split the Tory vote and help Miliband into Number 10.

[mikey4444]

Sandy...that is exactly what the Tories fear most. Hague recently said as much live on the telly....vote UKIP, get Labour.

[brionon]

Never under estimate the stupidity of the voters.

[Svejk]

^That's rich.

[BlackadderV]

UKIP won't win, but I bet they end up with more MPs than the Libs, who will be pushed back to the Celtic fringes, where time has stood still since the 18th century.