Donald Trump Ahead?

anotheoldgit | 11:13 Tue 06th Sep 2016 | News

15 Answers

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-donald-trump-ahead-hillary-clinton-new-polls-latest-a7225971.html

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ummmm

My cousin is American and is voting for Trump. He said he doesn't stand a chance though.

agchristie

A lot can happen in a week!

Who knows but perhaps the outcome is going to be closer than many people think..

Togo

It all went wrong for her from the minute Hilary had a pop at darling Nigel.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hillary-clinton-nigel-farage-attack-brexit-us-election-donald-trump-2016-democrats-a7210741.html

sp1814

AOG

Are you doubting the results of the poll you've linked to?

jim360

Any individual poll might put Trump (or Clinton) ahead, but the margin of error is in this case about four or five times the reported lead, so it doesn't mean that Trump is leading. In the poll averages, Clinton is clearly ahead. But, having said that, the gap widened dramatically (to about 9%) after the Democrat Party's National Convention but has since started to close (to about 5%). Add in the uncertainties and the expected result could be as narrow as 45-43 (albeit still in Clinton's favour).

The result is certainly not a foregone conclusion. Trump has, at the moment, less chance of winning, but he is by no means out of it.

As has been pointed out often, though, the US electoral college system is probably stacked against populist candidates with huge support in narrow demographics, so that may scupper Trump even if he ties with Clinton -- or beats her -- in the popular vote.