Snap General Election

[Hymie]

I reckon there could be more than a grain of truth in Peter Hitchen’s article as to the real reason Theresa May called a snap election.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4436518/PETER-HITCHENS-snap-election.html

If in 18 months time, 20 or so Tory MPs were found guilty of overspending on their election expenses and forced to stand down – she could find herself with a minority government, unable to continue with Brexit (or anything else for that matter).

[EDDIE51]

I agree. this expenses scandal has been hanging over them for months they could end up with a few MPs convicted of 'electoral abuse' or vote rigging ( not sure what the wording is)

[ToraToraTora]

well it would knacker her majority but brexit would continue. A50 is irreversible.

[mikey4444]

I am not sure why the Police have been dragging their heels over this scandal. Ch4 News first reported this months ago, and the evidence is very compelling. I smell a rat somewhere.

[mikey4444]

TTT....no one is suggesting that Brexit would be changed by this affair.

But for one political party to have so many MPs called into doubt, and also having to re-run 20 by-elections would be devastating to its reputation.

If we were to wake up tomorrow and find out that CPS were going to act against Tory officials, I think Mrs May would be far less confident about June 8th and she is today, and for good reason.

[cassa333]

There are always more then one reason for a snap election. What difference does it make to the MPs that are under investigation though?

I also think that all MPs have at some point massaged the paperwork as it were to get a couple of receipts through. Human nature is apt to push for everything it can get. MPs are no different and Conservative, Labour the lot of them are all alike. Some just haven't been nabbed yet.

[Guilbert53]

I think Theresa May was more worried that Labour would get rid of Corbyn BEFORE she had chance to call an election and replace him with someone more creditable.

Now with Corbyn in charge the Tories will probably get a huge majority at the election and be able to rule for the next 5 years.

IF Labour had got rid of Corbyn in the next few months they would have become a much more creditable party with a different leader and any future election would have been much closer.

[ichkeria]

I'm trying to get my head around this: the PM is worried about the prospect of 30 by-elections. So she calls 650 of them instead...

[-Talbot-]

I see the usual suspects are dissing a Daily Wail article agai... oh no ... wait!


;0)

[EDDIE51]

The problem with Getting rid of Corbyn is that he would just win again with an even bigger majority. He is immensely popular with the ordinary labour party members it's just their MP's who don't like him!
But it's the ordinary members who vote for party leader NOT the MP's.

[mikey4444]

Cassa....this isn't something as simple as "couple of receipts through".....this is a criminal offence.

And for the record, all the MP's and Constituencies under investigation are Tory and none are Labour.

[ToraToraTora]

mikey: "TTT....no one is suggesting that Brexit would be changed by this affair" the OP is "she could find herself with a minority government, unable to continue with Brexit (or anything else for that matter). " - I was merely pointing out that brexit is rolling, it would not have affected it.

[mikey4444]

TTT....and I agree.

Hymie has tried to conflate two different issues. This is about criminal investigations into Tory constituencies during the 2015 campaign, and has precious little to do with Brexit.

But Mrs May has now called an early Election, and I agree with Hymie that it may be related to the current criminal investigations. If the Election had not been called, and re-runs of those constituency votes bad been ordered, she may very well have lost her working majority.

My best guess on this is that she hopes to make sure of a better working majority, even if the 20 or so Tory MPs are found guilty at some time in the future.

Mrs MMay has played a very canny game here !

[youngmafbog]

I'm sure it was one factor among many.

Underlying has always been the howls from he left that she has no mandate. Wrong, but still damaging as the majority of the public are thick or easily led in this twitface era.

We wont know the truth until she writes her memoirs.

[ichkeria]

'The majority of the public are thick or easily led'
Tut tut: sounds a bit 'elitist' that :-)

[douglas9401]

"well it would knacker her majority but brexit would continue. A50 is irreversible."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
27th March 2017:

Lord Kerr, who wrote the Article 50 clause, has previously told the BBC “it is not irrevocable”.

“You can change your mind while the process is going on,” he said. “During that period, if a country were to decided actually we don’t want to leave after all, everybody would be very cross about it being a waste of time.

“They might try to exact a political price but legally they couldn’t insist that you leave.”

[ToraToraTora]

well what is the article that we'd use to withdraw? A50B??

[douglas9401]

I don't know Tora, you'd be better to ask Lord Kerr.

I'm only here to try and keep you to the facts. The truth, if you like.

[ichkeria]

There is one reason for the General Election and it's called:
The Opinion Polls :-)
It has nothing whatever to do with Brexit, except in the sense that by 2020, when the next election was to have been held, we'll probably be staring at the consequences of a very controversial Brexit deal. At lest we'll be in transition. There will be some very disappointed Brexiters, and/or Remainers.
The business of the expenses scandal might be regarded as an optional extra, but the idea that TM would risk a full-on election simply to avoid a few by-elections seemsm rather unlikely.

[ToraToraTora]

so what are the facts? Lord kerr is waxing lyrical, there is no antidote to A50, that's the truth.

[ichkeria]

I am absolutely certain that A50 is not irrevocable, if it came to it.
Everything that I have read suggests that.

Going back to the election thing, other than from TM's point of view having a larger majority to get stuff through parliament, from an EU perspective, and the actual negotiations, it makes no difference what the size of her majority is.