News4 mins ago
Theresa May: Britain 'may Never Leave At All'
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May has implied that Brexit could end up never happening if her deal is voted down this week.
Do you think this made her deal more likely to get through or less?
May has implied that Brexit could end up never happening if her deal is voted down this week.
Do you think this made her deal more likely to get through or less?
Answers
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More likely of course.
Brexit won the referendum. For the past two years plus virtually the entire government has in its own weird way been working on facilitating it in the best way. Now there is a Brexit deal but what has bedevilled this whole saga since March 2017 is the spectre of leaving in 2 years anyway without a deal which had led many Brexit supporters in parliament and beyond to hope they don’t need any sort of deal. Disabusing them of this idea is one way to ensure they vote for what they claim to want. Whether it’ll convince enough is another matter
Brexit won the referendum. For the past two years plus virtually the entire government has in its own weird way been working on facilitating it in the best way. Now there is a Brexit deal but what has bedevilled this whole saga since March 2017 is the spectre of leaving in 2 years anyway without a deal which had led many Brexit supporters in parliament and beyond to hope they don’t need any sort of deal. Disabusing them of this idea is one way to ensure they vote for what they claim to want. Whether it’ll convince enough is another matter
"She has a different interpretation of Brexit from what people would like,..."
Quite so. Her "interpretation" of leaving (as evidenced by the "agreement" she kindly signed up to unilaterally) is to remain in all but name. The deal has far more shortcomings than simply the Irish backstop issue and quite honestly I can't imagine how the 200-odd people that voted in favour of it at the first time of asking could have done so.
Our stupid MPs, most of whom would have difficulty running a whelk stall let alone a country (and most of whom would prefer the UK would remain in the EU precisely because they don't fancy that task), seem determined to ditch the only effective lever that the country has to shift the EU from its position - a "no deal" exit. It has been estimated that a No Deal exit will effect Ireland's GDP more than that of the UK by a factor ten. But still our stupid MPs want to rule it out. The EU has only to sit and wait while their ineptitude fully unfolds.
Quite so. Her "interpretation" of leaving (as evidenced by the "agreement" she kindly signed up to unilaterally) is to remain in all but name. The deal has far more shortcomings than simply the Irish backstop issue and quite honestly I can't imagine how the 200-odd people that voted in favour of it at the first time of asking could have done so.
Our stupid MPs, most of whom would have difficulty running a whelk stall let alone a country (and most of whom would prefer the UK would remain in the EU precisely because they don't fancy that task), seem determined to ditch the only effective lever that the country has to shift the EU from its position - a "no deal" exit. It has been estimated that a No Deal exit will effect Ireland's GDP more than that of the UK by a factor ten. But still our stupid MPs want to rule it out. The EU has only to sit and wait while their ineptitude fully unfolds.
The Germans know the truth, for once. Hard but smart is required!
Not Gently mentally.
//Top economists at Germany’s Ifo Institute have admitted that a “No Deal” Brexit — “Hard Brexit”, according to detractors, or “Clean Brexit”, according to proponents — would not leave the United Kingdom any worse off than the European Union, unless it was executed extremely poorly.//
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Not Gently mentally.
//Top economists at Germany’s Ifo Institute have admitted that a “No Deal” Brexit — “Hard Brexit”, according to detractors, or “Clean Brexit”, according to proponents — would not leave the United Kingdom any worse off than the European Union, unless it was executed extremely poorly.//
https:/
This is indeed more like it.
//The evidence suggests that the British government is indeed preparing a “hard but smart” strategy for No Deal — the efforts of EU loyalists among the ministerial ranks to take No Deal “off the table” notwithstanding — with reports indicating that the Department for International Trade intends to cut between 80 and 90 percent of all tariffs if negotiations founder and a clean break with the EU takes place.//
//The evidence suggests that the British government is indeed preparing a “hard but smart” strategy for No Deal — the efforts of EU loyalists among the ministerial ranks to take No Deal “off the table” notwithstanding — with reports indicating that the Department for International Trade intends to cut between 80 and 90 percent of all tariffs if negotiations founder and a clean break with the EU takes place.//
"It has been estimated that a No Deal exit will effect Ireland's GDP more than that of the UK by a factor ten."
If the impact on Ireland was 1000 times worse, and a million times worse for the rest of the EU, that still does not justify deliberately harming the UK's interests or those of its citizens.
If the impact on Ireland was 1000 times worse, and a million times worse for the rest of the EU, that still does not justify deliberately harming the UK's interests or those of its citizens.
"If the impact on Ireland was 1000 times worse, and a million times worse for the rest of the EU, that still does not justify deliberately harming the UK's interests or those of its citizens."
It remains to be seen whether any long term damage (as opposed to short term disruption) will ensue from Brexit. The electorate voted to leave the EU. It did not vote to abandon the Lisbon Treaty only to sign up to a replacement (in the name of a "Withdrawal agreement") which is arguably considerably worse.
It remains to be seen whether any long term damage (as opposed to short term disruption) will ensue from Brexit. The electorate voted to leave the EU. It did not vote to abandon the Lisbon Treaty only to sign up to a replacement (in the name of a "Withdrawal agreement") which is arguably considerably worse.
I find it quite baffling that some people are quite happy to accept the evidence that a no deal Brexit will cause very serious damage to Ireland, but simultaneously doubt that it will do anything more than cause an economic blip in the UK. The overwhelming likelihood is that no-deal will be a disaster for the UK's economy. Is it really responsible to allow that to happen - even if (if!) a slim majority people did vote for it? Even when there's zero evidence that the 52% who voted to Leave actually had a no-deal outcome in mind when they did so?
Krom, //Even when there's zero evidence that the 52% who voted to Leave actually had a no-deal outcome in mind when they did so?//
That's wishful thinking - and spin to boot! When people voted 'Leave' they didn't vote to keep a foot in the door. They voted to 'Leave'. Why is the word 'Leave' so difficult for you to understand?
That's wishful thinking - and spin to boot! When people voted 'Leave' they didn't vote to keep a foot in the door. They voted to 'Leave'. Why is the word 'Leave' so difficult for you to understand?
The leave campaign in my area campaigned on the basis of getting the EEA option (which is considerably less 'hard' than May's deal) - the oldest Eurosceptic campaign in the UK, part of Leave Alliance, campaigns for exactly the same thing and did so in the referendum too. Even Vote Leave, the official campaign, made claims about getting deals with the EU easily. They certainly weren't openly campaigning for a default to WTO rules.
There is absolutely zero evidence I'm aware of to suggest that the 52% who voted to 'Leave' all had the same thing in mind, and plenty to suggest that they didn't. The best I ever hear is people saying 'Well everyone I know voted to leave without a deal'... which isn't evidence because someone saying that couldn't possibly know why their friends voted the way they did.
Even if everyone voting to leave did want no-deal, though, (which is a very very big 'if') would it really be responsible to enact such a decision if it is overwhelmingly likely to be economically ruinous?
There is absolutely zero evidence I'm aware of to suggest that the 52% who voted to 'Leave' all had the same thing in mind, and plenty to suggest that they didn't. The best I ever hear is people saying 'Well everyone I know voted to leave without a deal'... which isn't evidence because someone saying that couldn't possibly know why their friends voted the way they did.
Even if everyone voting to leave did want no-deal, though, (which is a very very big 'if') would it really be responsible to enact such a decision if it is overwhelmingly likely to be economically ruinous?
Kromo, An interesting view here:-
https:/
https:/
//There is absolutely zero evidence I'm aware of to suggest that the 52% who voted to 'Leave' all had the same thing in mind, and plenty to suggest that they didn't. The best I ever hear is people saying 'Well everyone I know voted to leave without a deal'... which isn't evidence because someone saying that couldn't possibly know why their friends voted the way they did.//
Keep saying it, Krom. There's a chance you'll believe it yourself eventually.
Keep saying it, Krom. There's a chance you'll believe it yourself eventually.
The 52% who voted to Leave actually had a desire to leave. There was no ifs nor buts regarding how. I suspect most assumed the EU would be adult about negotiating rather than vindictive, as they are in positions of authority; and that the UK government would never think of trying to agree a, 'stay but take our name off the list so we're worse off', deal. But it turned out differently and a no-deal outcome is now the only honourable option left, so the Leave voters will, in the main, take that, since it is the only remaining :-) option left that fulfils the referendum result.
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