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Peterborough By-Election
The constituency has a long history of floating. In 1974 it returned a Conservative in February and Labour in October. Since then it has yo-yoed at each election between Labour and Conservative.
But this time there is the Brexit Party who will probably do very well, at the expense of the Conservatives. The LibDems are unlikely to do well soitis a two horse race.
What do you think will happen:
- Brexit wins because voters have abandoned the Conservative Government and the former Labour MP left in disgrace
- Labour wins because the Tory and Brexit opposition split the anti Labour vote
- Another result/ reason, please specify.
But this time there is the Brexit Party who will probably do very well, at the expense of the Conservatives. The LibDems are unlikely to do well soitis a two horse race.
What do you think will happen:
- Brexit wins because voters have abandoned the Conservative Government and the former Labour MP left in disgrace
- Labour wins because the Tory and Brexit opposition split the anti Labour vote
- Another result/ reason, please specify.
Answers
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//the former Labour MP left in disgrace //
The current Labour candidate is already in disgrace so hopefully she won't be in the running.
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The Brexit party will probably do very well.
The current Labour candidate is already in disgrace so hopefully she won't be in the running.
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The Brexit party will probably do very well.
Gromit you seem to be in denial that there are any brexit supporters in Labour, there are. "But this time there is the Brexit Party who will probably do very well, at the expense of the Conservatives." - and Labour. The electorate are mightily angry with both the main parties. Peterborough was 60/40 brexit at the referendum so I expect brexit to win with the Lib NonDems second. Tories and Labour will both get a kicking.
Labour are likely to lose votes to the Lib Dems because of the previous incumbent and some for the Brexit factor.
Therefore I cannot see them winning.
The Tories will lose votes to both sides for the Brexit factor. And given they are starting from a lower base anyway....
So I predict the BP will triumph and cue endless crowing from Farage (already calling it bigger than the referendum)
I would like to be wrong. Farage is a divisive figure all the same, even though he’s not actually the candidate, and he’ll have to rely on a strong “Brexit” factor as I doubt people will back them otherwise.
Therefore I cannot see them winning.
The Tories will lose votes to both sides for the Brexit factor. And given they are starting from a lower base anyway....
So I predict the BP will triumph and cue endless crowing from Farage (already calling it bigger than the referendum)
I would like to be wrong. Farage is a divisive figure all the same, even though he’s not actually the candidate, and he’ll have to rely on a strong “Brexit” factor as I doubt people will back them otherwise.
As has been pointed out, Peterborough is a very marginal seat. It was held for years by Sir Harmar Nicholls (father of Sue Nicholls, Audrey in Corrie) often with a majority in single figures, The lowest was 3. There were frequently numerous recounts. He scraped home in February 1974 but lost in October.
