Will The Naysayers Pray This Doesn't Work?

[ToraToraTora]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52374653
so they can s1agg off the government? is it more important to be able to berate a Tory government than to actually find an answer?
They said 18 months, we start trials on Thursday surely that is cause for optimism??

[Cloverjo]

Rather worryingly, Novak Djokovic has expressed his concerns over a potential vaccine. He’s an anti-vaxxer and doesn’t want his family to have them.

Given that he employed a quack to tell him he was gluten-averse because his left arm was weaker when he held bread in that hand, I don’t think anyone should listen to him. Plenty will though unfortunately.

[jim360]

If you want to know how uncertain scientists are, and how honest they are about what they don't know, then you need to read the actual papers rather than the condensed versions in the media.

[jim360]

For example, in a 1998 paper, Ferguson et al wrote,

"Uncertainties in key epidemiological parameters [for vCJD]... make prediction difficult, with both small and large epidemics possible."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(05)60744-1/fulltext

Then he and his collaborators revised the predictions in light of more data, which is consistent with the scientific method.

[Peter Pedant]

// Why not wait until you've got sufficient data? Or be more modest about what you claim to know.//

because .... if you wait for sufficient data - it is called a post mortem and not a prediction - - ter daaah !

I dont have any problem with predictions like - to get a curve to turn you need Ro to be less than one
we have a turning point in the curve so there we can conclude measures taken have reduced Ro to less than one [less than one person on average infected by each case

or - when the facts change I change my mind - what do you do?
( J M Keynes ) -

[Peter Pedant]

the big problem with CJD ( nothing wrong with mad cow disease in Man) was that they had no idea of the incubation period

interesting disease by the way for a classicist ( me!) - the DNA responsible for the naughty protein is - the host genome and is not involved in transmission -

but hey scientists can be wrong - cold fusion - vit C and colds - the list is endless, and er the details escape me

[Theland]

Sunshine gives you vitamin D and cancer. ∆∆∆∆

[ProfessorMaisie]

Offer Government the same generous terms?

[Peter Pedant]

// Trials are ongoing, and the study cited above isn't definitive, but the indications currently are that it isn't an effective treatment.//

chloroquine - the trial has been abandoned as no one benefitted and the cardio side effects were ;significant
the one I read was 26 deaths in the tmt gp and 11 in the placebo gp

[Peter Pedant]

wed pm
is anyone doing the Trump health news conference ?

it is all over the place - oh dear someone is pushing flu for autumn 2020 - no wonder poor non med ABers are er a little um confused

[Spicerack]

Did you get your 'facts' from Sky, as well, PP?
Anyway, any facts I put on here just get removed by the virologist mods.
So just carry on talking sub-twitter *** between yourselves.
Truth will out.