Covid 19 Graphs

[Dagman]

Hi Abers, anyone know of a reliable site showing graphs comparing deaths in each country per number of population, say per 10,000 of each country. I only seem to find the headcount per country which doesn't compare really. Tia.

[fiction-factory]

Talking of Covid graphs- did they show the wrong chart for Travel at today's briefing. It seemed to me they showed Thursday's or Friday's one again, and Professor Stephen Powis seemed to be thrown by it and seemed to go off script.

[fiction-factory]

Hi PP. I'm not sure what you are saying (your "where did that come from" comment) regarding my reference to population density.

[Peter Pedant]

Hi FF
oh it was you - I would have been less snarly.

I tire of penning a long accurate maff analysis and the poster replies- "yeah well I never got beyond 1+1 =2. Foo calculus, why doan they says calculation and have done wivvit!"
in which case I just as well pour myself a lager
and read a book

if you model the pop density in the SIR model - then the most likely effect is Ro goes down - and so the equations are as is. The constants change - which the commentators irritatingly call parameters.
I dont regard the equations as having been parametrised.

One - I can get it if you want - models the outbreak as a standing wave over an area - wow! - but even that doesnt model the terrain as having difft pop density. The presenter also does the numberphile viddies on Navier Stokes equations - and it is pretty impressive how he weaves the wave equations into the outbreak models .....

{population density IS important in genetics - if it goes too low ( less than 10 to the 5 but I cant recollect the units - then Darwinian principles of selection CEASE to apply)

er so this is a long reply to say - no I dont think pop density is a factor because those with highest ( netherlands Hong Kong and indonesia should all have multiple deaths. and those which are empty - antartica, namibia, mali should have none.)

[fiction-factory]

Thanks PP. But you did give the example of New York where the impact per million is far higher than across the rest of US.

[Peter Pedant]

erm yeah - because it was there !

(thank you anthony armstrong jones )

on the graphs the US is seen about twice as high as the nearest or next poor result - er the UK
ie is an outlier and may not be amenable to 'standard' analysis

china has been excluded as an outlier that is 'too low'

[KARL]

I have seen no suggestion in the informed discussion of the pandemic that population density per km² is in itself significant (ready to be guided to something that says this). What is clearly significant is if each dwelling has multiple occupants in numbers going past the low single digits, not to mention where occupants normally number 20 or more per dwelling or even individual room - which is why poor areas, nursing homes and prisons worry the authorities.

What has been very successful is isolation/quarantining of infected persons and/or those known to have been exposed - contact tracing being absolutely key. At least one of the countries jno mentions (15.14) has done this rigorously to excellent effect. But a female leader may not be that significant unless by keeping out of the storm and leaving the health service, scientists and police to run things - parliament rubber stamps the recommended policy and not a single politician is to be seen at the daily briefings, just professionals/specialists.

[Peter Pedant]

// What is clearly significant is if each dwelling has multiple occupants in numbers going past the low single digits, //

no even that is contentious

My nephew had it and did not infect his dear wife ( no kissy kissy for seven days clearly ) and then I read that it was frequent to have a household where one person infected and the others not ( NB no testing or antibodies in the UK) .
Along with the observation that this was noticed in Foe's Journal of the Plague Year
[rat fleas wouldnt go for just any human, even when they were fleeing a cooling dead human one - foe didnt notice that one]
altho in Eyam they kinder all died

[ladybirder]

America is actually doing very well.

// The United States, for example, has far more Covid-19 deaths than any other country - as of 20 April, a total of over 40,000 deaths.

But the US has a population of 330 million people.

If you take the five largest countries in Western Europe - the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain - their combined population is roughly 320 million.

And the total number of registered coronavirus deaths from those five countries, as of 20 April, was over 85,000 - more than twice that of the US.

So, individual statistics don't tell the full story. \\


https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/52311014

[pixie374]

They don't show other deaths either. My stepsister's husband has had prostate cancer for a long time (his dad and brother both died early with it). His treatment has now been stopped, due to covid, which means he now only has about 3 months left. That won't be counted, unless he happens to get covid as well.

[Peter Pedant]

// means he now only has about 3 months left. //

of treatment - or life?
patients for excellent reasons are not told when they gonna die.

[pixie374]

3 months to live. It had been around 2 more years.

[jim360]

I'm really sorry to hear that, Pixie.

[pixie374]

Thank you, Jim x

[muradhossain]

Hm! The world is going through a very sad time now and we don't know when it will end.