Boris Is Right Not To Ease Lockdown

[Bobbisox1]

Germany did and is paying the price

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-germanys-rate-of-covid-19-infections-grows-after-lockdown-eased-11980194

[Gromit]

The article clearly does not Attribute the lessening of lockdown with the increase in RO in Germany.

// officials believe it is too early to say whether the lifting of restrictions caused the increase, the country's overall number of cases //.

The Imperial College has estimated R0 For Corona to be somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5, so if the UK RO is 0.5 then that would indicate that an easing of lockdown could happen. We are never going to get an RO of 0 unless we irradiate the virus completely like has happened in New Zealand, but that is never going to happen here.

[Gromit]

Eradicate not irradiate.

[Prudie]

Yet irradiate might be the answer!

[douglas9401]

The phrase 'officials believe' is enough to send shivers down the spine.

It translates as 'no idea mate but fingers crossed eh?'

[Zacs-Master]

Well, at least you now know we have one, Gromit. You could have done that research in the first place and saved yourself posting your attempted knocking of the UK in not having one.

[Gromit]

The 1918 flu RO of 1.2 + and killed 50 million people.
If the UK corona RO is 0.5, then we are beating it.

[Gromit]

Zacs,
I did attempt to look it up. I told you I googled it and didn't find the answer. Possibly because I searched for ‘infection Rate‘ not ‘reproduction number‘.

[ToraToraTora]

gromit: "The UK doesn’t even know how many people have recovered from the virus (nearly every other nation has that data, but the UK doesn’t). " - well they have a figure, but I'd like to see their provenance. Would you rather we joined in and made one up?

[Gromit]

When we have tested less than half the number that Germany has, it makes you wonder how accurate our RO number is. Just 11,000 tests per million is not a big sample, and no tracing at all.

BTW

We are now above Germany on the world table, 5th worse figures in the world, and we will probably pass France within a week.

[Gromit]

ToraToraTora

Every other UK figure is an inaccurate guess.
Our total deaths of 21,600 does not include the 5000 who have died in care homes or people who died at home.
So yes, even an approximate number is better than nothing to compare with the world.

[Zacs-Master]

it makes YOU wonder how accurate our RO number is, Gromit, because you’re always on the lookout for something with which to denigrate the UK with, aintcha!

[Gromit]

Zacs,

The UK is the 5th worst affected country in the world (And we will probably rise higher).
It is a valid question to ask ‘Why?’
And look for possible answers (and differences to how other countries have handled the pandemic).

That is not to denigrate the country, it is highlighting possible mistakes we have made (and hopefully are learning from).

[Zacs-Master]

Only slightly ahead of the country you cited as having an ‘accurate’ figure, Gromit.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Strange that, eh?

[Gromit]

From what I see, most counties pin a ease on lockdown to getting the RO less than 1.0.
The Chief Medical Officer says we have achieved that, possibly as low as 0.5. So limited easing of lockdown might be possible.

[Zacs-Master]

But Germany’s resurgence (remember, the country you cited as have a more accurate figure than us) proves that not to be the case.

[Gromit]

Zacs,
I never said Germany’s figures were accurate. They probably aren’t, but they have tested more and done SOME tracing, so I suspect they are a better guess.

[Zacs-Master]

Gromit, you stated ‘ We know Germany’s RO is 0.9’ there was no ambiguity.

[Gromit]

Zacs,
The rise in Germany’s RO is yet proven to be linked to the easing of lockdown, the link in the OP makes that clear.
Germany only started to tentative open some shops 1 week ago, so even if easing does have an affect, it would be unlikely to have shown up in testing so quickly.

[jno]

the casualty rate has exceeded that of the 'blitz'. the war lasted 6 years

the Blitz lasted about 12 weeks, so it seems a fair comparison. And especially in London the population was about the same as now.

[Zacs-Master]

Anyway, back to your other statement
‘The UK doesn’t even know how many people have recovered from the virus (nearly every other nation has that data, but the UK doesn’t).’
Can you supply a link / links with other country’s recovery figures?
The UK’s were provided in my Worldometer link, by the way.