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Interesting...
The architect of Sweden's coronavirus strategy has claimed that the UK's lockdown has been largely "futile" in containing the virus:
https:/
You may not be able to read the full article because of the DT's paywall. Mr Jieseke claims that the lockdown strategy does not prevent severe cases but only pushes them further into the future. He suggested that once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. In particular he has been critical of the modelling produced by the team led by Prof Ferguson. You remember him. He was the one who told the PM that without a lockdown the country could see half a million deaths. He then encouraged his married lover to visit him because "he thought he was immune." His team's research forecasted that Sweden's approach would take its R number above three and would lead to 40,000 deaths by May 1st. Yesterday (May 6th) that number stood at 2,941. To be fair, Prof. Ferguson did not say which May 1st he was referring to.
https:/
You may not be able to read the full article because of the DT's paywall. Mr Jieseke claims that the lockdown strategy does not prevent severe cases but only pushes them further into the future. He suggested that once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. In particular he has been critical of the modelling produced by the team led by Prof Ferguson. You remember him. He was the one who told the PM that without a lockdown the country could see half a million deaths. He then encouraged his married lover to visit him because "he thought he was immune." His team's research forecasted that Sweden's approach would take its R number above three and would lead to 40,000 deaths by May 1st. Yesterday (May 6th) that number stood at 2,941. To be fair, Prof. Ferguson did not say which May 1st he was referring to.
Answers
New Judge, You may find this interesting.
12:19 Thu 07th May 2020
LOL@ "Hurd immunity"
Anyway, this virus is very much like polio - before there was a vaccination, no-one really knew who would get it, or how it was passed on. People could be infected with no symptoms and be passing it onto others for a long time. No-one knew who would be paralysed when they did get it, whether they would need an iron lung, or whether they would just have a limp. We may just have to live with this like they did in the 40s and 50s
Anyway, this virus is very much like polio - before there was a vaccination, no-one really knew who would get it, or how it was passed on. People could be infected with no symptoms and be passing it onto others for a long time. No-one knew who would be paralysed when they did get it, whether they would need an iron lung, or whether they would just have a limp. We may just have to live with this like they did in the 40s and 50s
// no-one really knew who would get it, or how it was passed on.//
er most ( people would get it)
and er in the sewers - polio was water born
polio was endemic ( always around somewhere - like now in Egypt) and turned for reasons they werent sure - into epidemics
the minor illness ( nothing xc temp a bit like Corona) cd morph into the major ( paralysis ) but the extent of the paralysis ( inc need for iron lung ) didnt relate to the extent of long term disability - including prolonged need for an iron lung.
and they were never really that good ( iron lungs - 30% mortality in chidren )
hahahaha I must tell you - but I didnt laught at the time
I was gonna run a clinic at a dig near abu simbel so asked the director ( now it can be told ) to circulate a list of medical things to do. The few American kids hadnt been vaccinated ( polio) I found out whilst I was there ! Nothing to be done and in the end I said to the director, that these teenagers are unprotected and I am absolutely sure I included polio in the things to do , As the Brits had noticed in the 1950s, the young squaddies tended by age to get much more paralysed than primary kids.
and HE said - oh that list- it seemed so long and pointless I threw it away!
One of lifes little lessons - ho ho ho I can laugh about it now fifty y later. it brought home to me how careless people can be about other peoples lives
er most ( people would get it)
and er in the sewers - polio was water born
polio was endemic ( always around somewhere - like now in Egypt) and turned for reasons they werent sure - into epidemics
the minor illness ( nothing xc temp a bit like Corona) cd morph into the major ( paralysis ) but the extent of the paralysis ( inc need for iron lung ) didnt relate to the extent of long term disability - including prolonged need for an iron lung.
and they were never really that good ( iron lungs - 30% mortality in chidren )
hahahaha I must tell you - but I didnt laught at the time
I was gonna run a clinic at a dig near abu simbel so asked the director ( now it can be told ) to circulate a list of medical things to do. The few American kids hadnt been vaccinated ( polio) I found out whilst I was there ! Nothing to be done and in the end I said to the director, that these teenagers are unprotected and I am absolutely sure I included polio in the things to do , As the Brits had noticed in the 1950s, the young squaddies tended by age to get much more paralysed than primary kids.
and HE said - oh that list- it seemed so long and pointless I threw it away!
One of lifes little lessons - ho ho ho I can laugh about it now fifty y later. it brought home to me how careless people can be about other peoples lives
//NJ the mantra is "Stay at Home-Protect the NHS-Save Lives. The thought behind it, to flatten the curve, and thus ensure that there was enough critical care for those who needed it, was clearly explained many many many times.//
Clearly not to Transport for London, woofy. Perhaps Mayor Khan was not at the briefing:
https:/
//Chalk and cheese. For a start ...//
I imagine the people who ran the ICL model for Sweden knew the difference between that chalk and cheese and adapted the model accordingly. It certainly seems so from the information in the link kindly provided by Gromit.
One of the assumptions made by Professor Ferguson when he produced his Domesday scenario for the UK was that 81% of the UK population would contract the disease. This does not seem to be borne out by the experience on the cruise ship Diamond Princess. There some 3,700 passengers and crew were banged up for a fortnight in very confined conditions but only 17% tested positive.
But anyway, let’s give the Prof a break. This is an unprecedented situation and he’d had little experience in such matters. Or had he?
The first entry in his record of service book came in 2001. Then he persuaded the Blair government to order the pre-emptive destruction of 6.5m animals, based on his modelling of the foot & mouth outbreak. The University of Edinburgh later described his model as “not fit for purpose.”
A year later he turned his attention to vCJD (“Mad Cow Disease”). He forecast up to 50,000 deaths, maybe up to 150,000 if the disease spread to sheep. The total death from that condition to date is 178.
He then turned his attention to Bird Flu. He never produced a formal forecast but hazarded a guess that it could be up to 200m worldwide. I haven't got details of the outcome but I think I would have remembered had it been that high.
2009 gave him the chance to give advice on the outbreak of “Swine ‘Flu”. He made a flawed assumption on the mortality rate and forecast 65,000 deaths. There were 283.
I cannot understand how a man who has shown time and again a predilection to get things so spectacularly wrong continued to have the ear of government. He is clearly a charlatan and his “error of judgement” in inviting his lover to visit him contrary to the law may have done the country a favour. His latest advice to the UK government has seen them take action which will absolutely cripple the economy for years to come and I hope that Professor Ferguson is never again in a position to provide his “expert” advice. Hopefully the remainder of his team are a little more competent.
Thanks all for the contributions. BA to Gromit for digging out the AIER report. A couple of telling passages:
“And the overall death toll of the baseline “do nothing” scenario appears to have little grounding in reality.”
“But the Swedish adaptation paints an underwhelming picture of its predictive ability, especially given that those predictions formed a primary basis of the US and UK policy responses.”
Clearly not to Transport for London, woofy. Perhaps Mayor Khan was not at the briefing:
https:/
//Chalk and cheese. For a start ...//
I imagine the people who ran the ICL model for Sweden knew the difference between that chalk and cheese and adapted the model accordingly. It certainly seems so from the information in the link kindly provided by Gromit.
One of the assumptions made by Professor Ferguson when he produced his Domesday scenario for the UK was that 81% of the UK population would contract the disease. This does not seem to be borne out by the experience on the cruise ship Diamond Princess. There some 3,700 passengers and crew were banged up for a fortnight in very confined conditions but only 17% tested positive.
But anyway, let’s give the Prof a break. This is an unprecedented situation and he’d had little experience in such matters. Or had he?
The first entry in his record of service book came in 2001. Then he persuaded the Blair government to order the pre-emptive destruction of 6.5m animals, based on his modelling of the foot & mouth outbreak. The University of Edinburgh later described his model as “not fit for purpose.”
A year later he turned his attention to vCJD (“Mad Cow Disease”). He forecast up to 50,000 deaths, maybe up to 150,000 if the disease spread to sheep. The total death from that condition to date is 178.
He then turned his attention to Bird Flu. He never produced a formal forecast but hazarded a guess that it could be up to 200m worldwide. I haven't got details of the outcome but I think I would have remembered had it been that high.
2009 gave him the chance to give advice on the outbreak of “Swine ‘Flu”. He made a flawed assumption on the mortality rate and forecast 65,000 deaths. There were 283.
I cannot understand how a man who has shown time and again a predilection to get things so spectacularly wrong continued to have the ear of government. He is clearly a charlatan and his “error of judgement” in inviting his lover to visit him contrary to the law may have done the country a favour. His latest advice to the UK government has seen them take action which will absolutely cripple the economy for years to come and I hope that Professor Ferguson is never again in a position to provide his “expert” advice. Hopefully the remainder of his team are a little more competent.
Thanks all for the contributions. BA to Gromit for digging out the AIER report. A couple of telling passages:
“And the overall death toll of the baseline “do nothing” scenario appears to have little grounding in reality.”
“But the Swedish adaptation paints an underwhelming picture of its predictive ability, especially given that those predictions formed a primary basis of the US and UK policy responses.”
//This does not seem to be borne out by the experience on the cruise ship Diamond Princess. There some 3,700 passengers and crew were banged up for a fortnight in very confined conditions but only 17% tested positive.//
'Interesting' indeed, was that not mainly due to lockdown, something you seem to be against? A couple of bits from the link '‘one person could go on to infect more than 7 others. The infection rate was probably quite high because people were living in close quarters and touching surfaces contaminated with the virus’...‘But after people were confined to their rooms, the average number of others to whom one infected person passed the virus dropped below one. This suggests that the quarantine averted a lot of infections'.
https:/
'Interesting' indeed, was that not mainly due to lockdown, something you seem to be against? A couple of bits from the link '‘one person could go on to infect more than 7 others. The infection rate was probably quite high because people were living in close quarters and touching surfaces contaminated with the virus’...‘But after people were confined to their rooms, the average number of others to whom one infected person passed the virus dropped below one. This suggests that the quarantine averted a lot of infections'.
https:/
tomus42 //It seems fairly obvious to me that the time to evaluate what was the best approach and who did what, when and whether it should have been done sooner or later, is when we're on the other side of this.
That way every country can be better prepared for the next time it happens.
Bickering while we're all in the middle of it just looks like political point scoring.//
Unless you're blaming Trump of course, eh, tomuz?
That way every country can be better prepared for the next time it happens.
Bickering while we're all in the middle of it just looks like political point scoring.//
Unless you're blaming Trump of course, eh, tomuz?
If each person went on to infect seven others the entire ship would have been infected within a day or two of the first infection. And it wasn't.
//The infection rate was probably quite high..//
But it wasn't. It was only 17% overall (compared to Professor Ferguson's assumption that 81% of the UK population would fall victim).
//But after people were confined to their rooms, the average number of others to whom one infected person passed the virus dropped below one.//
How do they know? The first patient on the ship with the infection almost certainly had it when he boarded on 20th January. He was not tested until 1st February and no infection on board the ship was suspected until then. So the ship's passengers and crew were exposed to contamination for eleven days before restrictions were put in place. New cases were confirmed on the ship until 25th February, almost four weeks after the restrictions were put in place. Nobody knows whether those new infections were contracted before or after the ship's lockdown.
For the record, I am not against restrictions entirely. What I am against is restrictions that have simultaneously crippled the economy. This virus will not be eliminated. It will probably disappear or mutate of its own accord in 12 -24 months, but we will not eliminate it. The projections made by Prof Ferguson are, in my view, dubious to say the least, but they had been taken as gospel. A far more tailored approach needs to be adopted to protect the vulnerable but the economy must be allowed to resume.
//The infection rate was probably quite high..//
But it wasn't. It was only 17% overall (compared to Professor Ferguson's assumption that 81% of the UK population would fall victim).
//But after people were confined to their rooms, the average number of others to whom one infected person passed the virus dropped below one.//
How do they know? The first patient on the ship with the infection almost certainly had it when he boarded on 20th January. He was not tested until 1st February and no infection on board the ship was suspected until then. So the ship's passengers and crew were exposed to contamination for eleven days before restrictions were put in place. New cases were confirmed on the ship until 25th February, almost four weeks after the restrictions were put in place. Nobody knows whether those new infections were contracted before or after the ship's lockdown.
For the record, I am not against restrictions entirely. What I am against is restrictions that have simultaneously crippled the economy. This virus will not be eliminated. It will probably disappear or mutate of its own accord in 12 -24 months, but we will not eliminate it. The projections made by Prof Ferguson are, in my view, dubious to say the least, but they had been taken as gospel. A far more tailored approach needs to be adopted to protect the vulnerable but the economy must be allowed to resume.
// Unless you're blaming Trump of course, eh, tomuz? //
Where have I done that?
What I said was that it will be interesting to see what pans out in America as they're easing lockdown, and that IF the death rate increases there it could have a negative effect on Trump's election prospects.
As I said at the before, you're such a Trump fanboy you perceive every mention of your idol as an attack on him without actually reading what was said.
Where have I done that?
What I said was that it will be interesting to see what pans out in America as they're easing lockdown, and that IF the death rate increases there it could have a negative effect on Trump's election prospects.
As I said at the before, you're such a Trump fanboy you perceive every mention of your idol as an attack on him without actually reading what was said.
I can see you're having trouble finding that thing I said about Trump to prove me wrong Spicey, so I've found it for you. Maybe try reading it more slowly this time.
// If the death rate keeps going up that could well work against him, but the message will be that all the deaths are China's fault, which will go down well with his supporters no matter what.
There's nothing to do but see how it develops. //
// If the death rate keeps going up that could well work against him, but the message will be that all the deaths are China's fault, which will go down well with his supporters no matter what.
There's nothing to do but see how it develops. //
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