Article By Dr John Lee

[Captain23]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ten-reasons-to-end-the-lockdown-now

[naomi24]

//It's pretty clear that we can't wait that long to find out //

Indeed it is.

[fiction-factory]

Fatalities = dead bodies.
Current count is based on deaths where there was a positive Covid test.
We know this understates the figure as some deaths outside hospital have Covid on the death cert (as either 'of' or 'with' Covid) but aren't included in the daily figures if there was no test.
Excess Mortality is the likely measure that will be used eventually. It is currently running well above the Covid levels. Jim may know the exact figure but was approaching double the normal death rate. In New Your it was 3-4 times higher I recall

[fiction-factory]

^ mine was in response to Naomi's query on the previous page about how fatalities were counted

[jim360]

So in that case, doesn't that support drastic measures being taken now, even if it turns out in hindsight that they were an overreaction? I would rather be overcautious and wrong than undercautious and wrong.

Also, another important point about Ferguson's prediction: the highest figures (ie 500,000) cited apply only to the "do nothing" case. With interventions the death total was expected to drop to somewhere in the tens of thousands. By definition, we can no longer test his model for the "do nothing" scenario. The remainder may or may not be accurate, but it's boring to have to combat the 500k death toll figure over and over. We simply won't know if he was right or not.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[jim360]

A good source for tracking all-cause mortality excesses:

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

[naomi24]

Thank you FF - that we know - but it doesn't address the question of 'with' or 'of'?

[naomi24]

//it's boring to have to combat the 500k death toll figure over and over. //

I find it boring too. Oh, that he hadn't said it.

[fiction-factory]

^ Pretty much the same as I said at 12:26, on previous page, jim.

[jim360]

He can only report what his models tell him, no? And if the model predicted that, absent all interventions, the death toll would be comparable to half a million, what else is he supposed to say? Scientists can be, and often are, wrong, but they don't pull numbers out of their backsides.

The far more important point about his model, really, was that interventions were vital to bring the death toll under control.

[NickorWan]

We should see in the coming months whether the excess deaths in April would have died soon anyway. If that's the case the death rates for the coming months will appear below the average.

[fiction-factory]

Naomi. Read jim's post again and mine. You will never know whether he would have been wrong.
As for 'of' or 'with' Covid. I thought that had been covered and that's why Chris Whitty repeatedly says we should look at Excess Mortality. Jim gas said it too and explained it well.
How would you count Covid fatalaties?
Do you think we are over-recording Covid deaths? If so, how does that explain the surge in Excess Mortality?

[Zacs-Master]

Jin, the FT is getting its info from the ECDC (no, not a tribute rock band) so here is a link to the ‘horses mouth’:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

[naomi24]

FF, I’ve read the posts.

[fiction-factory]

There's a difference between reading and understanding or applying critical thinking of course

[diddlydo]

I've read the article but only skip-read the many posts here. However, it seems that, for the first time ever, I'm in accord with many posters on this site i.e. that the management of Covid in the UK has been a disaster administered by the government. May I remind them that it was their ilk who elected Boris and Co.

[fiction-factory]

You have misunderstood this thread then. A lot of posters on here support John lee's view and want lockdown scrapped. But your party don't want it ending. Which side of the fence are you on? (apart from anti Tory)

[dannyk13]

FF, not so much as which side of the fence, rather which planet is she on.

[diddlydo]

FF - I support the article and I want lockdown scrapped. No idea what you mean when you refer to "your party" - which party is that?

[fiction-factory]

Well diddlydo- SNP, Labour , Greens, Libs, Welsh Nationalists seem to be against loosening the lockdown in May. The only party in favour that I know of is the Tory Party who want to start a long, slow staged relaxation very soon. So maybe you're a secret Tory? Or Trump supporter?

[diddlydo]

I want lockdown scrapped which doesn't align me with any particular political party. End of. (By the way, Trump is completely bonkers followed a hair's breadth away by Boris)