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But I should also add, Sqad, that the problem is the question sadly isn't so simple. Belgium and the UK in particular are measuring different things, so that the number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK is probably undercounted by official measures*, and Belgium's might even be an overestimate**
*I want to stress that I am not accusing the Government of deliberately undercounting. It has been made very clear what the daily figures are counting, and so long as that's understood there is no deceit.
**Likewise, I am not criticising Belgium's official statistics, merely acknowledging that they are a different measure from the UK's.
*I want to stress that I am not accusing the Government of deliberately undercounting. It has been made very clear what the daily figures are counting, and so long as that's understood there is no deceit.
**Likewise, I am not criticising Belgium's official statistics, merely acknowledging that they are a different measure from the UK's.
I don't think it really makes a lot of difference. The number is "a lot" and I don't think anybody is arguing against that. There are all sorts of reasons why numbers in seemingly similar countries are different, not least the way that they are counted. I know only two people who are among the 100,000 dead; both of them would, by any measure, almost certainly have been dead either shortly before or shortly after they had contracted Covid anyway. I would warn about taking much heed of the figures for San Marino. It is basically a small area of Italy which for reasons unknown warrants its Covid statistics being recorded as if it were a separate nation. It has a population of around 30,000 - roughly 10% of my local authority area - and is one third of the size of my LA. I imagine there are a large number of similarly small areas across the world (some no doubt in the UK) where similar death rates would be apparent.
It is no use continually harping on about the number of deaths. What is far more important to the country as a whole is how the government intends to get out the corner into which it has painted itself by continually moving the goalposts. Lockdowns will not eradicate the virus; it's doubtful that vaccination will (because too many people will fail to have it); the first goal of ensuring the NHS is not overwhelmed has been met; the second goal of buying time until a vaccine is rolled out is beginning to be met; now we are told we must wait until mutant strains no longer present a threat.
I wonder what's next. Whatever it is, I hope it doesn't cost too much money because before long it will run out. The people currently being paid to sit at home will no longer be paid; the companies that are currently not trading will not reopen; there will be no money to pay teachers even if the schools did reopen and the NHS will have no cash to treat anything at all - even Covid. Meanwhile the "temporary" measures which increase all the time (now we need "papers" before being allowed to travel outside the border) will become permanent by default (and that particular measure will be irrelevant because the carriers will have gone skint and nobody will have any money to use their services anyway). Still, so long as the virus is kept "under control" that's all that matters.
It is no use continually harping on about the number of deaths. What is far more important to the country as a whole is how the government intends to get out the corner into which it has painted itself by continually moving the goalposts. Lockdowns will not eradicate the virus; it's doubtful that vaccination will (because too many people will fail to have it); the first goal of ensuring the NHS is not overwhelmed has been met; the second goal of buying time until a vaccine is rolled out is beginning to be met; now we are told we must wait until mutant strains no longer present a threat.
I wonder what's next. Whatever it is, I hope it doesn't cost too much money because before long it will run out. The people currently being paid to sit at home will no longer be paid; the companies that are currently not trading will not reopen; there will be no money to pay teachers even if the schools did reopen and the NHS will have no cash to treat anything at all - even Covid. Meanwhile the "temporary" measures which increase all the time (now we need "papers" before being allowed to travel outside the border) will become permanent by default (and that particular measure will be irrelevant because the carriers will have gone skint and nobody will have any money to use their services anyway). Still, so long as the virus is kept "under control" that's all that matters.
Just to address at least one of your points, NJ:
"...the goal of ensuring the NHS is not overwhelmed has been met..."
For now, yes, but it is fairly plain that relaxing the measures now would render the entire exercise pointless, in the same way that the decision to ease restrictions at the end of November was a catastrophic error. The entire purpose of a lockdown is not just to ensure that the NHS isn't overwhelmed tomorrow but also isn't overwhelmed in the near future either. In that sense, therefore, the "first goal" hasn't been met yet.
"...the goal of ensuring the NHS is not overwhelmed has been met..."
For now, yes, but it is fairly plain that relaxing the measures now would render the entire exercise pointless, in the same way that the decision to ease restrictions at the end of November was a catastrophic error. The entire purpose of a lockdown is not just to ensure that the NHS isn't overwhelmed tomorrow but also isn't overwhelmed in the near future either. In that sense, therefore, the "first goal" hasn't been met yet.
Probably that would be a good idea too, but it feels crazy and callous, to say the least, to let the virus run its course, which it should be clear would lead to many tens of thousands more excess deaths, and frankly would be easily another hundred thousand by May, let alone the 50,000 more we can expect given the current state of the pandemic. It's unconscionable to sacrifice so many.
