Snake Island

[Khandro]

'With Snake Island in Ukrainian hands, the threat to Russia’s Black Sea fleet will go up, the risk of an amphibious assault on Odesa will go down, the chances of the Kremlin smashing Ukraine’s economy is reduced and Putin’s stranglehold over the provision of grain to the world’s poorest regions, and indeed food prices globally, is weakened - as will his economy be when prices settle.

Tactical actions can sometimes have strategic effects. Wars can be won or lost over the smallest details.

Whether that blasted chunk of rock in the Black Sea is one such detail will be revealed, probably sooner than later.'

Telegraph

Some good news at last ?

[Khandro]

As I've said earlier, Putin himself is micro-managing the war, there is no overall strategic plan. Violence, brutality & destruction is all he knows & this will drag on & on until he is removed or stopped.

[Gromit]

The disinformation that the shopping mall strike was a dodgy old missile that missed its intended target, can be discounted because there were 2 missiles that hit. They were indeed cruise missiles, which are remotely piloted to their target.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19032054/moment-russian-missile-shopping-mall/#

[ichkeria]

The point about these missiles is that they are not designed to hit with precision in the first place.
Apartment blocks and large shopping centres though are large enough probably to guarantee a v good chance of a hit even so

[Gromit]

// Russian medium bombers have launched dozens of 1960s era AS-4 air-launched, heavy anti-ship missiles against land targets. On the night of May 8-9, 2022, for the first time during the war in Ukraine, Russians used AS-4 air-based cruise missiles , which are carried by Tu-22M3 strategic bombers, to strike Ukraine's territory.

These 5.5 tonne missiles were primarily designed to destroy aircraft carriers. When employed in a ground attack role with a conventional warhead they are highly inaccurate and can therefore cause significant collateral damage and civilian casualties. The UK Ministry of Defence reported 11 June 2022 that Russia is likely resorting to such inefficient weapon systems because it is running short of more precise modern missiles, while Ukrainian air defences still deter its tactical aircraft from conducting strikes across much of the country. //

[ichkeria]

After the Odesa attacks this morning the BBC commented inaccurately that regaining Snake Island might help protect the port of Odesa, but the point about Snake Island is that it's value to Russia was as a base for air defence to protect its fleet.
It isn't going to stop attacks from the air

[Gromit]

BBC
// Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov argues that stationing troops on Snake Island makes no sense for either side as they would become an easy target. Instead, Mr Zhdanov advocates creating "fire control" - maintaining the capability to strike any target approaching the island.
That would also give greater security to Ukraine's biggest Black Sea port of Odesa, and the whole north-western sector of the Black Sea. //

[Khandro]

With consideration of Odessa, & grain for the world at stake, I think they, holding the island, will be given some sophisticated weaponry with which to defend themselves & retain that strategic position.

The size of the island is immaterial Think 'brave' Horatius the Captain of the Gate, - or the Rock of Gibraltar for that matter.

[Spicerack]

Sorry, moneyplant. That was another thing that didn't happen.

[ichkeria]

The island wasn’t bombed by the Russians. There wasn’t anything to bomb.
The Moskva (RIP) us heard to ask the coastguard station’s military to surrender or be attacked. After the defiant reply the radio goes dead and it was assumed the guards had been attacked but they obviously backed down.
Worth bearing in mind next time we throw a wobbly about a threat of nukes from the real Moskva

[Gromit]

// That was another thing that didn't happen. //

What didn’t happen ?

[ichkeria]

Supply depots of russian ammunition in E Ukraine continue to be systematically “prematurely detonated” by Ukraine’s increasingly powerful artillery

[Spicerack]

Gromit //as the Russians approached Snake Island, also known as Zmiinyi Island, the Russian officer says: "This is a military warship. This is a Russian military warship. I suggest you lay down your weapons and surrender to avoid bloodshed and needless casualties. Otherwise, you will be bombed."
A Ukrainian soldier responds: "Russian warship, go f*** yourself."
Those were the final known words heard from the island.
All 13 Ukrainian defenders were killed in a Russian bombardment Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
"All border guards died heroically but did not give up. They will be awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine posthumously," Zelensky said.//

[ichkeria]

Even better: they were decorated while still alive and went back to war

[Khandro]

ichi; was Spiceracks report fake news then?

[Khandro]

'This is not just a symbolic victory for Ukraine, it is a strategic success. For Russia this is both a setback and an embarrassing defeat.'

BBC

[ichkeria]

“Author ichi; was Spiceracks report fake news then?”

Not sure which report you mean.
The defenders of Snake Island lived, in a rare instance of us making the same point :-)
This morning’s murderous attacks in Odesa tells us all we need to know about what Russia thinks of being pushed off Snake Island.
And likely losing a naval war to a country with no navy :-)

[ichkeria]

Ah if you mean was Zelensky’s reaction fake news no it was a case of assuming the worst. No one believed the Russians at the time (can’t think why not) but thankfully for once they were right.

[ichkeria]

Odesa is sadly no safer from air attack after this as I pointed out earlier. Only enhanced air defence - coming soon - can do that. But it does increase the vulnerability of the Black Sea fleet

[ichkeria]

The ultimate humiliation: tonight Russia itself has been bombing snake island (so maybe they do dare after all) to prevent abandoned equipment falling into enemy hands. All but one of their bombs missed …