Science1 min ago
How Long Will Truss Last?
102 Answers
In light of everything that’s happening, how much longer will the Parliamentary Party tolerate her?
https:/
From that link:
A government that has barely begun is confronted by open questions about its imminent end.
That is the astonishing truth at Westminster, so spectacularly has Liz Truss cratered her authority with her own MPs.
In the short term, she seeks to salvage her premiership and her programme for government, or at least any parts of it that can command the confidence of her party and the financial markets.
Her critics say waiting until the end of the month to announce her plans is unsustainable.
Meanwhile Tory MPs speculate about her future and that of the chancellor.
Could Kwasi Kwarteng be the fall guy for the chaos, some ask.
Could he be sacked, or resign?
"The thing is, if she does that she removes a lightning rod, and you know what happens then? The lightning will hit her instead," one MP sceptical of that idea said.
https:/
https:/
From that link:
One MP present said the attack came from education committee chair Robert Halfon, who said that, in a matter of days,
the new PM had wrecked a decade of efforts to extend the party's appeal to the blue-collar working-class by offering tax breaks for the rich and welfare cuts.
One Conservative MP told The
Independent that there was
"a robust exchange of views"
- code for a row inside the behind-closed-doors meeting.
Asked if Ms Truss had won over any of her critics, the MP replied: "Probably not"
And a former minister told The
Independent:
"It was horrific. She's not
going anywhere but she can't survive."
I’d say she’s got maybe a week to save her premiership, but absolutely no clue how she does it whilst presently losing all credibility?
Any Tory voters/faithful got an opinion on how long she stays or how she survives?
https:/
From that link:
A government that has barely begun is confronted by open questions about its imminent end.
That is the astonishing truth at Westminster, so spectacularly has Liz Truss cratered her authority with her own MPs.
In the short term, she seeks to salvage her premiership and her programme for government, or at least any parts of it that can command the confidence of her party and the financial markets.
Her critics say waiting until the end of the month to announce her plans is unsustainable.
Meanwhile Tory MPs speculate about her future and that of the chancellor.
Could Kwasi Kwarteng be the fall guy for the chaos, some ask.
Could he be sacked, or resign?
"The thing is, if she does that she removes a lightning rod, and you know what happens then? The lightning will hit her instead," one MP sceptical of that idea said.
https:/
https:/
From that link:
One MP present said the attack came from education committee chair Robert Halfon, who said that, in a matter of days,
the new PM had wrecked a decade of efforts to extend the party's appeal to the blue-collar working-class by offering tax breaks for the rich and welfare cuts.
One Conservative MP told The
Independent that there was
"a robust exchange of views"
- code for a row inside the behind-closed-doors meeting.
Asked if Ms Truss had won over any of her critics, the MP replied: "Probably not"
And a former minister told The
Independent:
"It was horrific. She's not
going anywhere but she can't survive."
I’d say she’s got maybe a week to save her premiership, but absolutely no clue how she does it whilst presently losing all credibility?
Any Tory voters/faithful got an opinion on how long she stays or how she survives?
Answers
// Her problem is that the parliamentar
10:26 Fri 14th Oct 2022
the markets my dear have already 'priced in' a U turn into the stock prices
all done with confidence ( wevva the markets think Truss is a go-er).
And when all is done ( when the battle's fought - and won )- (say ponderously as it is shakespeare) - you can price this.
How much all this blah-de-blah has cost - - nothing has actually changed, it is just people's thoughts. I reckon it will be around a trillion
and it just blah-de-blah - words
no missiles have landed on the stock exchange etc
ho hum, how the great and good rule us
all done with confidence ( wevva the markets think Truss is a go-er).
And when all is done ( when the battle's fought - and won )- (say ponderously as it is shakespeare) - you can price this.
How much all this blah-de-blah has cost - - nothing has actually changed, it is just people's thoughts. I reckon it will be around a trillion
and it just blah-de-blah - words
no missiles have landed on the stock exchange etc
ho hum, how the great and good rule us
But she appointed him Jno, the two positions are inextricably linked and have been throughout political history, so whatever happens from now on in reflects on her as much as him.
Between the two of them the damage they’ve caused is irreparable, to their party, their reputations and their government.
They’ve painted themselves into a corner, a disaster entirely of their own making.
Between the two of them the damage they’ve caused is irreparable, to their party, their reputations and their government.
They’ve painted themselves into a corner, a disaster entirely of their own making.
Meanwhile, on Sky News(other media sources are available)
/Conservative Party is vulnerable amid 'extraordinary' poll lead for Labour, Tory MP says
Tory MP Mel Strike says he thinks the "entire Conservative Party is vulnerable at the moment".
The Treasury Committee Chair tells Sky News: "Nobody can be in a position where you're 20, 30 points behind the Labour Party, an extraordinary polling position to be in, and not feel very vulnerable."
This comment comes after the release of a poll reported earlier that gave Labour a lead of 34% - with the opposition receiving more than double the support of the Conservatives.
He continues: "I think anybody, even with an apparently safe Conservative seat with a big majority, will be thinking very carefully about where we're going./
Down the pan would seem the obvious answer? This is a political party in total meltdown.
/Conservative Party is vulnerable amid 'extraordinary' poll lead for Labour, Tory MP says
Tory MP Mel Strike says he thinks the "entire Conservative Party is vulnerable at the moment".
The Treasury Committee Chair tells Sky News: "Nobody can be in a position where you're 20, 30 points behind the Labour Party, an extraordinary polling position to be in, and not feel very vulnerable."
This comment comes after the release of a poll reported earlier that gave Labour a lead of 34% - with the opposition receiving more than double the support of the Conservatives.
He continues: "I think anybody, even with an apparently safe Conservative seat with a big majority, will be thinking very carefully about where we're going./
Down the pan would seem the obvious answer? This is a political party in total meltdown.
Kwarteng will be gone within a week.
Truss’s survival depends on what she does next.
- She has to ditch the fiscal event and start again.
- Sack the Chancellor.
- Make Mourdant Chancellor.
Only then she might have a slim chance of survival. She may already be too discredited and tainted to have a future.
Truss’s survival depends on what she does next.
- She has to ditch the fiscal event and start again.
- Sack the Chancellor.
- Make Mourdant Chancellor.
Only then she might have a slim chance of survival. She may already be too discredited and tainted to have a future.
chancellors are turned over more often than the PMs who appoint them (since the year of our blessed St Margaret, 1979, there have been 14 chancellors and only eight PMs).
That seems about right to me as a general principle: you can't be sacking the boss every time an underling screws up. This is perhaps a special case in that the two arrived at the same time, only yesterday it seems, and haven't had the time to differentiate themselves.
But Kwarteng's done quite badly enough off his own bat to merit being dismissed without scoring. Honestly, faced with about 16 economic crises all at once, what sort of idiot would think the highest priority was to give the rich more money and make their children pay for it?
That seems about right to me as a general principle: you can't be sacking the boss every time an underling screws up. This is perhaps a special case in that the two arrived at the same time, only yesterday it seems, and haven't had the time to differentiate themselves.
But Kwarteng's done quite badly enough off his own bat to merit being dismissed without scoring. Honestly, faced with about 16 economic crises all at once, what sort of idiot would think the highest priority was to give the rich more money and make their children pay for it?
// Her problem is that the parliamentary Tory party didn't want her; they wanted Sunak. //
While that's true, I don't think that's her *main* problem. The problem is instead that she seemed instantly to forget this, and instead decided to appoint a cabinet of loyalists. That was already a serious miscalculation. If as a PM your own Parliamentary Party begrudges your presence, then it's clear that you have to work with them, not try to cut them out. This is such a basic principle of good politics that it's staggering that Liz Truss seemed so unaware of it.
It's the same with the policy. Regardless of the merits of the various policies in the mini-budget, all of them were proposals that require Parliamentary approval. Why did it not seem to occur to her to sound out the party on these points, work out what would pass and what would not? Bearing in mind that we know Cabinet wasn't consulted, then we can be reasonably confident that the Party at large wasn't either, so it's a reasonable question. It's insane that at no point did it occur to Truss and Kwarteng that what they were proposing would be unpopular, not with the people per se, but with her own MPsas a result.
All of this seems to come about because Truss has vastly overestimated the strength of her mandate. I'm not saying she's an illegitimate PM, because she has as much right to the office as any mid-term PM; but what I am saying is that the radical change in tax policy she's proposing requires, demands even, a mandate from the country, not from a small subsection of it. At the very least, a less ambitious and far-reaching mini-budget would have been better. Announce a freeze in corporation tax, say, but not the 45p tax cut, which you can save for later. Don't reverse the NI rise, but delay it. Don't lift the cap on bankers' bonuses just yet. Just, generally less radical, so that the chances of getting some of it through *now* increase dramatically.
I want to stress that it's not a question to my mind of whether the mini-budget was economically sensible. I can't possibly judge that. I know what I *think* of it, but that's irrelevant to the assessment above. Governments have a right to set tax policy, and they also have a right in some sense to make unpopular decisions. But they should also have the political wisdom to make policies they can pass. And it simply beggars belief that Truss and Kwarteng thought that the full package of their "mini" budget would pass. It's astonishingly naive, or monumentally arrogant, or both.
I'm not sure Truss should resign. Indeed, Tory MPs should understand that changing leader again, and without consulting the members, is frankly insulting to those members and to the country at large. But Truss has to understand that she doesn't have a mandate to be radical. If she can't cope with that limitation, she should step down, or call an election to get the wider mandate she needs. Given the direction of polling, calling an election is clearly dooming the Tories to opposition quickly, so I don't see this happening; but equally, the country can't endure two years of dysfunctional Government incapable of doing anything.
While that's true, I don't think that's her *main* problem. The problem is instead that she seemed instantly to forget this, and instead decided to appoint a cabinet of loyalists. That was already a serious miscalculation. If as a PM your own Parliamentary Party begrudges your presence, then it's clear that you have to work with them, not try to cut them out. This is such a basic principle of good politics that it's staggering that Liz Truss seemed so unaware of it.
It's the same with the policy. Regardless of the merits of the various policies in the mini-budget, all of them were proposals that require Parliamentary approval. Why did it not seem to occur to her to sound out the party on these points, work out what would pass and what would not? Bearing in mind that we know Cabinet wasn't consulted, then we can be reasonably confident that the Party at large wasn't either, so it's a reasonable question. It's insane that at no point did it occur to Truss and Kwarteng that what they were proposing would be unpopular, not with the people per se, but with her own MPsas a result.
All of this seems to come about because Truss has vastly overestimated the strength of her mandate. I'm not saying she's an illegitimate PM, because she has as much right to the office as any mid-term PM; but what I am saying is that the radical change in tax policy she's proposing requires, demands even, a mandate from the country, not from a small subsection of it. At the very least, a less ambitious and far-reaching mini-budget would have been better. Announce a freeze in corporation tax, say, but not the 45p tax cut, which you can save for later. Don't reverse the NI rise, but delay it. Don't lift the cap on bankers' bonuses just yet. Just, generally less radical, so that the chances of getting some of it through *now* increase dramatically.
I want to stress that it's not a question to my mind of whether the mini-budget was economically sensible. I can't possibly judge that. I know what I *think* of it, but that's irrelevant to the assessment above. Governments have a right to set tax policy, and they also have a right in some sense to make unpopular decisions. But they should also have the political wisdom to make policies they can pass. And it simply beggars belief that Truss and Kwarteng thought that the full package of their "mini" budget would pass. It's astonishingly naive, or monumentally arrogant, or both.
I'm not sure Truss should resign. Indeed, Tory MPs should understand that changing leader again, and without consulting the members, is frankly insulting to those members and to the country at large. But Truss has to understand that she doesn't have a mandate to be radical. If she can't cope with that limitation, she should step down, or call an election to get the wider mandate she needs. Given the direction of polling, calling an election is clearly dooming the Tories to opposition quickly, so I don't see this happening; but equally, the country can't endure two years of dysfunctional Government incapable of doing anything.
Press "conference" (probably just a statement) later.
https:/
hopefully the mainstream media will deign it to be important enough to broadcast it on one of the main channels, and not on some obscure channel like Yokohama Docks CableVision.....
https:/
hopefully the mainstream media will deign it to be important enough to broadcast it on one of the main channels, and not on some obscure channel like Yokohama Docks CableVision.....
I think they will both limp on amending policies and winding the time down until this government falls. I cannot remember of such a stupid government, selfishly out to gain for themselves, arguing among themselves and booting out a competent PM, and it is as if they do not really care about the electorate. Labour should start preparing for government.
Blackstoun
//Never thought I would agree with you fatticus, but you may be right . Whether the mini budget was good or bad I can’t comment , but it is the sight of Tory mps rushing to protect their own interests that it is definitely the nail in the coffin for voters observing the mess from the outside.//
Wow, amazing turnaround for a dyed-in-the-wool Tory voter since this recent thread?
https:/
I guess truth dawns on pretty much everyone eventually in the face of such overwhelming reality(well, bar one, but that ABer is off the scale) but yes, the rank and file of the Parliamentary Party know the game is up and there is no exit strategy in the playbook for this scenario.
//Never thought I would agree with you fatticus, but you may be right . Whether the mini budget was good or bad I can’t comment , but it is the sight of Tory mps rushing to protect their own interests that it is definitely the nail in the coffin for voters observing the mess from the outside.//
Wow, amazing turnaround for a dyed-in-the-wool Tory voter since this recent thread?
https:/
I guess truth dawns on pretty much everyone eventually in the face of such overwhelming reality(well, bar one, but that ABer is off the scale) but yes, the rank and file of the Parliamentary Party know the game is up and there is no exit strategy in the playbook for this scenario.
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