@jomifl
//Hypo, I believe there a few more molecules in the ocean than in a bucket.
Was I being too subtle? //
Ahhmmm. Pass.
(on the subtlety angle, at least)
Certainly there are more molecules in an ocean but that brings in the problem of dilution. It's no use if you have one of the reagents on one side of the ocean and the other on the opposite side.
Or, on the molecular scale, a picometer's worth of miss is as good as a mile (if you'll excuse the mix of units). :-D
I guess the planet has to build up a critical concentration of the required molecules in its seas, lakes and ponds before the reaction rate can get anything much on the 'products' side of the equation.
All reactions being reversible, all complex chemicals having a natural tendency to break apart, life has been a long game of working against the processes of decay, borrowing energy* to build complexity.
Hard to say whether or not self replication is the sole logical upshot of this but, once the mechanism has been 'stumbled upon', it's pretty much unstoppable and, by the time organisms arise, all other chemicals in the soup are merely 'food'. Any alternative self-replicating mechanisms that ever existed likely got wiped out.**
* logically, this should make me a sun-worshipper (shrug)
** which is why it is worth searching for life on Mars, imho, to see if all that random stuff achieved self-replication a second time, but with differences in the details of the mechanism.