The euro

[Dolt]

Whats going to happen to it?
If the euro goes, what will happen to my money, will I lose everything?

[jake-the-peg]

New Judge says this because he hates and loathes the EU and wishes failure on anything they do.

If you were in Greece I'd say yes there's a significant risk they'll default

In that case they'd be thrown out of the Euro. People's Euros in bank accunts will get converted to dracma and because they defaulted they'll have no money and there'd be massive infaltion etc.

I don't think it will happen but there is a significant rk that might.

There is pretty much no risk that Ireland is going to default so I think you're safe enough - The Irish economy is not doing well but that's not the same as a soverign default.

However it's always wise not to keep all your eggs in one basket and if you've a lot of cash you might want to split it between investments - in which case you want to see a financial advisor and not take advise from people you dont know off the web

[New Judge]

Yes, sqad, the UK debt is greater than the Greek debt. And the UK economy is considerably larger than the Greek economy. But crucially, at least for the moment anyway, the UK government has managed to convince its lenders that it will regain control of its debt – something that a number of Eurozone nations have not been able to do.

Although I don’t have a particular liking for the EU, jake, I said what I said not because of that dislike, but because most of my utterings are either matters of fact or at least widely held opinion.

Almost everybody apart from politicians now accepts that the Euro was a flawed project – certainly as far as the number and nature of the nations that were allowed to join. Had it comprised just the “solid” nations of, say, Germany, France and the Netherlands (though just how solid they really are remains to be seen) it may well have succeeded and prospered. But it was obvious that the nature of the Euro could not accommodate the diversity of the seventeen members. It was also obvious that Germany and France were not going to stand by and see their economies disadvantaged by any of its shortcomings. It was fine when things were ticking along nicely and nations were enjoying “growth” (albeit on borrowed money). They could convince lenders that their growth would enable them to pay off their debts. But once the recession hit and growth declined that confidence gradually waned until we got to where we are today.

You will see from some of my other posts that I would like nothing better than for the Euro to survive and prosper. I’m not particularly interested in the fate of its member states – they made their bed and they can lie in it. But the shambles to which it has degenerated is having a serious impact on the UK’s economy. It would be nice if for once – just once – politicians would accept that they made an error and set about putting right, quickly and courageously, the damage they have caused. They have been fannying around over agreeable dinners at increasingly frequent “summits” for over two years now and all they have come up with is a way to fund bankrupt states by way of their beloved “Tobin Tax”, about 80% of which would fall on the City of London.

They need to cut to the chase and accept that the Euro cannot continue in its current format. Whether that results in a “two-speed” Europe is beside the point. The present one-speed version is going extremely quickly – backwards.

[David H]

Bear in mind that had the lame ducks not been allowed in (and totally fraudulently by hiding their true debts in financial instruments etc) then the Euro would not now be in trouble there would be no issue. The free lending was as predictable as it was when mortgages were deregulated both sides of the Atlantic so all the sheep came to the market and got fleeced. If you offer people cheap money they conveniently forget it may need paying back and cost more than they borrowed.

But the crux is what the proposed solutions are for the problem. Fiscal union and a Europe wide debt rather than individual countries, requiring a deeper connection on all levels. How would they have attempted that in such a short time without a pressing reason? Now they can say without pooling the debts the Euro will collapse so it's the only way to save it, and overnight you'll have a federal Eurozone with central monetary control from the (unelected) commission. You couldn't have written it as a story.