Looks Like May's A Shoo-In.

[Jackdaw33]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36718196

[naomi24]

Jim,//it's totally reasonable to be at least a little apprehensive. //

But the vocal Remainers are not being just a little apprehensive - they're consistently predicting dire gloom and doom.

[Gromit]

Naom,

The time-line came from here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36693200

I have mot been scaremongering across the threads. I have said Brexit is economic suicide, but I am just echoing the Bank of England, IMF, World Bank et al. You keep saying it will hurt the EU more than it hurts us, but that is nonsense. 16% of the EUs trade is with the UK. Obiously losing that will hut them. But we are losing 3 times that, 44% of our trade is with the EU.

[ToraToraTora]

there is no need for anyone to lose trade, surely we can have agreements.

[naomi24]

Gromit, oh, the BBC. I might have guessed.

You've been put right on trade figures before. To put it simply, the EU sells far more to us than we sell to them. Consequently, by refusing to trade with us, they have far more to lose than we do.

[jim360]

Two trading figure sources below:

ONS figures on UK-EU imports and exports (in £): http://tinyurl.com/zeyl9b3

EU figures on trade to non-EU member states: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_122530.pdf

In absolute terms the EU exports ~ £300 billion per year to the UK, and about 5 or 6 times that to the rest of the world. But then of course all the internal EU trade generates money itself, even if the overall balance is presumably zero. The UK represents ~10% of the EU's total internal trade balance, I think.

For the EU to cut off trade with the UK would hurt it, but hardly cripple it. Not that this is reason for them to do so, of course, but it seems dubious to assume that the UK is keeping EU trading afloat.

[Old_Geezer]

16% of EU trade is with the UK. But to replace that hit they'd need someone foolish enough to agree to their present single market demands. (Or accept the tariffs anyway.)

44% of our trade is with the EU. But it need not be. One can see that being in the EU would artificially inflate the ratio of trade with them to trade with other countries. And since the UK isn't suggesting having unreasonable demands in order to trade, replacing it shouldn't be an uphill task. We already have others making enquiries.

[Old_Geezer]

Internal EU trade can generate commerce but I don't see how it generates money. That's passed around. That either has to come in from external investors, or someone somewhere must be increasing the money supply, maybe printing, or the equivalent of printing, money.

[jim360]

Commerce, then, OG if you like. Another slight flaw in the figures above is that the EU trade document will include the UK's contribution, which probably deflates the overall figures by around 10-15%.

I guess the main point is that I don't think it's a given that we have the stronger bargaining power (ie the rest of the EU has more to lose than we do). Germany's economy is bigger than ours still; France's is around the same size; most of the other nations add up to around four times our total.

The UK is huge, but the EU is huger. Both sides have a lot to lose. This is probably a good thing, as neither side will be that keen to screw the other one over.

[naomi24]

Jim, //it seems dubious to assume that the UK is keeping EU trading afloat.//

The only suggestion I've seen of that has come from you. They will trade, we will trade, life will go on.

[ladybirder]

Mervyn King, former BofE boss, thinks the economic costs to Britain of leaving the European Union are exaggerated.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/20/economic-threat-of-brexit-is-being-exaggerated-says-former-bank/

[chiaroscuro]

Going back to the Tory leadership election...
AL came second in the first ballot, she is more popular than MG who is damaged goods. It is possible that some MPs will vote for MG in the second (last) round to scupper AL's chances. If MG truly believes it is important that a Brexiteer has a chance of being chosen by the membership he should fall on his sword.