ChatterBank6 mins ago
The Will Of The People ?
I wonder how many of the democracy-loving Brextremists will review this with their usual blinkers well in place.
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There is a difference between the EU imposing tariffs on us directly, and a no-deal scenario in which trade reverts to WTO rules. In the second case, which is the one actually up for discussion here, those would be two-way tariffs anyway. So TTT's "threat" already exists, and doesn't of itself solve the problem.
Forcing a no-deal Brexit on our part would be something of a Samson act at best, and is in nobody's interests.
Forcing a no-deal Brexit on our part would be something of a Samson act at best, and is in nobody's interests.
Very few countries in the world trade under default WTO conditions:
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//How do other nations manage - many quite successfully, a few very successfully - to trade with the EU without a "deal"//
I suspect they have built businesses which are profitable even when tariffs are imposed. We may be able to do the same, but you can’t assume that all the existing businesses will be able to function as they are now if there are additional tariffs.
I suspect they have built businesses which are profitable even when tariffs are imposed. We may be able to do the same, but you can’t assume that all the existing businesses will be able to function as they are now if there are additional tariffs.
I said short term rather than minor, but yes it will be minor in the scheme of things anyway. Problem flying in your lettuces for the pet rabbit ? Or finding the cost of imported fresh produce going up a bit and in slightly shorter supply because you won't eat local produce until they sort the system ? It's not naivety you want to be concerned about, it's exit phobias.
I don't think anybody is suggesting the transition can be achieved immediately and without disruption. That is the UK's fault for allowing itself to become entangled from the pernicious spider's web that the EU is.
Yes, it's a different starting point, but to say "I wouldn't start from here if I were you" is a bit slapstick.
There is no need for the UK to "crash out" of the EU via a "cliff face". By the time the (currently proposed) transition period ends it will be almost five years from the vote. The fact that businesses and government have not adequately prepared for leaving is scarcely the fault of the electorate. The talk of shortages of food and medicines, of aircraft being grounded and all the other nonsense spewing forth from Project Fear Part 94 is simply that - nonsense. Incredible as it may seem, traders in the UK and on the continent will still exchange goods, services and cash. The EU cannot currently prevent a few Africans arriving in rubber boats from invading its shores. Does anybody seriously believe that those same nations have the will and the wherewithal to prevent much wanted trade (from both sides) continuing without much friction?
The only way for the UK to take full advantage of Brexit is to be completely rid of any influence the Euromaniacs have over its affairs. Anything else will see the advantages of leaving lost and the disadvantages of remaining sustained. The EU will see to that in any "deal" it finally agrees to.
Yes, it's a different starting point, but to say "I wouldn't start from here if I were you" is a bit slapstick.
There is no need for the UK to "crash out" of the EU via a "cliff face". By the time the (currently proposed) transition period ends it will be almost five years from the vote. The fact that businesses and government have not adequately prepared for leaving is scarcely the fault of the electorate. The talk of shortages of food and medicines, of aircraft being grounded and all the other nonsense spewing forth from Project Fear Part 94 is simply that - nonsense. Incredible as it may seem, traders in the UK and on the continent will still exchange goods, services and cash. The EU cannot currently prevent a few Africans arriving in rubber boats from invading its shores. Does anybody seriously believe that those same nations have the will and the wherewithal to prevent much wanted trade (from both sides) continuing without much friction?
The only way for the UK to take full advantage of Brexit is to be completely rid of any influence the Euromaniacs have over its affairs. Anything else will see the advantages of leaving lost and the disadvantages of remaining sustained. The EU will see to that in any "deal" it finally agrees to.
"Not one of them on here seems to be able to defend my points about immediate tariffs being introduced if we 'hard brexit',..."
Whilst not "defending" them as such I thought I'd addressed the point at 20:38 yesterday. Having said that, do you think either the UK or the EU will be in a position to impose tariffs in March 2019 if no deal is reached? The alternative, of course, is for goods to remain unmoved in either the UK or the EU. Do you think that will be the case? Do you envisage the UK being "starved out" by the EU as Germany attempted in WW2 by attacking the Atlantic Convoys? Or am I over dramatising the situation? Or do you think that even in the event of a "no deal" exit some common sense might prevail with the 27 remaining nations (and their traders) bringing some pressure on the Euromaniacs to exercise some pragmatism? One thing's for sure - in the event of no deal being reached, one of those three scenarios must play out and I know where my money would go.
Whilst not "defending" them as such I thought I'd addressed the point at 20:38 yesterday. Having said that, do you think either the UK or the EU will be in a position to impose tariffs in March 2019 if no deal is reached? The alternative, of course, is for goods to remain unmoved in either the UK or the EU. Do you think that will be the case? Do you envisage the UK being "starved out" by the EU as Germany attempted in WW2 by attacking the Atlantic Convoys? Or am I over dramatising the situation? Or do you think that even in the event of a "no deal" exit some common sense might prevail with the 27 remaining nations (and their traders) bringing some pressure on the Euromaniacs to exercise some pragmatism? One thing's for sure - in the event of no deal being reached, one of those three scenarios must play out and I know where my money would go.
ZM: "Not one of them on here seems to be able to defend my points about immediate tariffs being introduced if we 'hard brexit', other than a dismissive 'ahhh, don't worry, we'll be alright' or me being accused of promoting project fear. " - how many more times? we can do immediate tarrifs too! Capeisch?
// we can do immediate tarrifs too! Capeisch? //
But the tariffs Z_M is talking about are a result of defaulting to WTO terms - so we'd already have tariffs raised on EU goods by default unless agreed otherwise.
That is what hard-Brexit means without a deal. There are a huge number of businesses who are reliant on the current supply chains (which I remind you is about 40% of our trade versus about 15% of EU trade) that obviously won't be able to continue operating in the same way (if at all) if we default to mutual tariffs. Saying "we can do it too!" is just meaningless.
But the tariffs Z_M is talking about are a result of defaulting to WTO terms - so we'd already have tariffs raised on EU goods by default unless agreed otherwise.
That is what hard-Brexit means without a deal. There are a huge number of businesses who are reliant on the current supply chains (which I remind you is about 40% of our trade versus about 15% of EU trade) that obviously won't be able to continue operating in the same way (if at all) if we default to mutual tariffs. Saying "we can do it too!" is just meaningless.
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