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What Is The Real Death Figure For Covid?
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This question was the main headline on the front of the Daily Mail on Saturday, Feb 27th followed up by a 4-page feature inside. Relatives of some dead people are angry because they say their deceased relative didn't have Covid but it appears on their death certificate. Some say they had tested negative. So what is the real figure? Users of this website will already know that I think the figures are lies, exaggeration and alarmist. They are though, aren't they?
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What prudie? There's a few people, maybe a few thousand, who query there relatives cause of death. Drops in the ocean. Its 120000 give or take 10000. We use a measure which is pretty consistent with other countries.
Belgium is stricter and counts more. Spain tweak's its figures down a bit by excluding some where there was a posative test but they think it should'nt count. But its a minor detail , doesnt change the figures much maybe 5% either way which is nothing in the scheme of things.
Why would are goverment want to inflate are figures to make us look one of the worst in the world.
Prudie you have no evidence the figures are significantly overstated, nor does newjudge. Nor does 10 clarinst whose just having a laugh anyway
Belgium is stricter and counts more. Spain tweak's its figures down a bit by excluding some where there was a posative test but they think it should'nt count. But its a minor detail , doesnt change the figures much maybe 5% either way which is nothing in the scheme of things.
Why would are goverment want to inflate are figures to make us look one of the worst in the world.
Prudie you have no evidence the figures are significantly overstated, nor does newjudge. Nor does 10 clarinst whose just having a laugh anyway
I know I live a sheltered life in a rural area but:
I personally know of no-one who has died of or with Covid
My workplace, which is like a factory environment, has had 200 staff going in every day since last March 2020 (and about 50 working from home). Since March ten staff have had covid and all of them were back in work within 2 or 3 weeks.
I know this is very unusual before I get the shame on you comments, just relating my personal experience.
I personally know of no-one who has died of or with Covid
My workplace, which is like a factory environment, has had 200 staff going in every day since last March 2020 (and about 50 working from home). Since March ten staff have had covid and all of them were back in work within 2 or 3 weeks.
I know this is very unusual before I get the shame on you comments, just relating my personal experience.
A case study for this discussion would be a country where there has been a very low death rate attributed to Covid. All worrying cases of Covid have been hospitalised and every single patient who ended up dying was most definitely ill of the disease with medical staff fighting to keep them alive right to the end, I think all actually in intensive care at the time. There is not one example among them where they died at a care home or were perhaps on palliative care at best because the health service for whatever reason couldn't cope.
This is where the "excess deaths" approach completely sends things up the spout because it was reported that in 2020 there were actually fewer deaths than in an average year. The country in question has, over a wide range of areas, much better record keeping and way better accessibility to records and transparency in presentation than is found in the UK so an "error", "revision", "delay in updating", "best estimate", etc. simply does not come into play. The excess death approach would suggest that if Covid was involved in shaping the figures it actually saved people who in a normal year would have died or perhaps brought some people previously dead back to life.
The basic problem around what the real count of Covid deaths is is that the UK is so disorganised. I wrote and asked for a particular Covid related figure from the relevant (UK) authorities (as one might in a Freedom of Information Request, although this wasn't one) and got a long screed listing what is published - which doesn't include what I wanted but that was not stated/admitted. The figures to answer my enquiry exist somewhere because the BBC has them (I have seen them) - I would have preferred to get them from the authorities (who for some reason want them not to be immediately available). This is something I find so crassly wanting about the organisation and running of the UK. Why is there this inability to be up front and/or do things well (or determination not to) ? Is all this just because of some kind of massively paralysing embarrassment and panic leading to a knee-jerk cover-up tendency - time after time ?
This is where the "excess deaths" approach completely sends things up the spout because it was reported that in 2020 there were actually fewer deaths than in an average year. The country in question has, over a wide range of areas, much better record keeping and way better accessibility to records and transparency in presentation than is found in the UK so an "error", "revision", "delay in updating", "best estimate", etc. simply does not come into play. The excess death approach would suggest that if Covid was involved in shaping the figures it actually saved people who in a normal year would have died or perhaps brought some people previously dead back to life.
The basic problem around what the real count of Covid deaths is is that the UK is so disorganised. I wrote and asked for a particular Covid related figure from the relevant (UK) authorities (as one might in a Freedom of Information Request, although this wasn't one) and got a long screed listing what is published - which doesn't include what I wanted but that was not stated/admitted. The figures to answer my enquiry exist somewhere because the BBC has them (I have seen them) - I would have preferred to get them from the authorities (who for some reason want them not to be immediately available). This is something I find so crassly wanting about the organisation and running of the UK. Why is there this inability to be up front and/or do things well (or determination not to) ? Is all this just because of some kind of massively paralysing embarrassment and panic leading to a knee-jerk cover-up tendency - time after time ?
I know two people who have lost elderly parents from care homes. Both were at the end of their lives and needed hospital attention. Both were tested before leaving the care home, with negative results for Covid. Both had Covid as a cause of death on their death certificate. I remain convinced that our large number of deaths due to Covid are exaggerated, and that there are far more European countries who are not declaring numbers honestly, or using a different system of noting deaths.
// This is where the "excess deaths" approach completely sends things up the spout because it was reported that in 2020 there were actually fewer deaths than in an average year. //
How do you figure that? Unless you took figures that hadn't actually included the last two months or whatever. England and Wales, at least, recorded a death toll that was something in the region of 15% to 20% in excess of the average. Even if you correct for changes in population, the excess is still clearly visible in two massive spikes in around April-May 2020, and then from November through to early February 2021.
The simple truth is that nobody knows exactly how many people died from Covid, and nobody will ever know either. This is, of course, what allows conspiracy theorists to run riot, exploiting that uncertainty to offer up all sort of nonsense. "With" v. "of" isn't quite in the same league, but it is still misleading, and of course would fail to explain why the death toll saw two massive peaks that happened to coincide with surges in the number of record Covid cases.
Covid kills. It kills a lot of people. It still has the potential to do so. Thankfully, signs are that the vaccines available are effective. Finding excuses to ignore or underplay the threat, however, will ultimately only serve to make the threat more serious.
How do you figure that? Unless you took figures that hadn't actually included the last two months or whatever. England and Wales, at least, recorded a death toll that was something in the region of 15% to 20% in excess of the average. Even if you correct for changes in population, the excess is still clearly visible in two massive spikes in around April-May 2020, and then from November through to early February 2021.
The simple truth is that nobody knows exactly how many people died from Covid, and nobody will ever know either. This is, of course, what allows conspiracy theorists to run riot, exploiting that uncertainty to offer up all sort of nonsense. "With" v. "of" isn't quite in the same league, but it is still misleading, and of course would fail to explain why the death toll saw two massive peaks that happened to coincide with surges in the number of record Covid cases.
Covid kills. It kills a lot of people. It still has the potential to do so. Thankfully, signs are that the vaccines available are effective. Finding excuses to ignore or underplay the threat, however, will ultimately only serve to make the threat more serious.
jim360 22.13 - Not the UK (of course not). The better organised country has the full up-to-date data practically daily, all readily available (no hiding in dark corners, discouraging probing questions). There everybody knows the precise figure (check their online Covid data bank in 11 languages - yep, 11), updated as soon as anyone actually dies from Covid (within hours), which hasn't happened for months.
//Prudie you have no evidence the figures are significantly overstated, nor does newjudge.//
I never said they were. I'm just relating the tale of two people whom I know to have died and the complication of their death certificates. The complication arises because they certificated mentioned a cause that had not been confirmed, had not been suspected by anybody close to them and of which they had displayed no apparent symptoms. I've absolutely no idea why Covid should have been mentioned on their DCs and nor has anybody else. They might just have well have mentioned leprosy or beriberi because they displayed no symptoms of those maladies either.
I never said they were. I'm just relating the tale of two people whom I know to have died and the complication of their death certificates. The complication arises because they certificated mentioned a cause that had not been confirmed, had not been suspected by anybody close to them and of which they had displayed no apparent symptoms. I've absolutely no idea why Covid should have been mentioned on their DCs and nor has anybody else. They might just have well have mentioned leprosy or beriberi because they displayed no symptoms of those maladies either.
It was about Aug - Sep before i even knew anyone who had the virus, let alone die from it. More recently, i have watched the funerals of 3 friends; two of whom died because of Covid, and the other who died with Covid. Apparently, all 3 would still be alive today but for Covid - the third had a serious underlying medical condition which wasn't immediately life threatening.
To be fair, if a coin did keep coming up heads you might want to reassess whether it was truly fair or not...
But, yes. Anecdotal evidence, no matter how compelling, doesn't override the global picture. We've been perhaps spared even worse death tolls because, for example, it seems that the disease never really spread through most of Africa (with the notable exception of South Africa), and India's outbreak has seen over 150,000 dead, but that is mercifully slight in a country of about 1.3 billion people -- a naive calculation suggests that if India had been hit as badly as the UK has, then that would lead to a death toll there in the region of 2.5 million, which is about the same as the official global death toll currently.
But, yes. Anecdotal evidence, no matter how compelling, doesn't override the global picture. We've been perhaps spared even worse death tolls because, for example, it seems that the disease never really spread through most of Africa (with the notable exception of South Africa), and India's outbreak has seen over 150,000 dead, but that is mercifully slight in a country of about 1.3 billion people -- a naive calculation suggests that if India had been hit as badly as the UK has, then that would lead to a death toll there in the region of 2.5 million, which is about the same as the official global death toll currently.
// I wonder how many could be removed from the national total?//
I dont
irrelvant pish
the excess death figure gives a more accurate figure
te big Lie is that 100 000 dead out there - smelling and unburied
and someone says covid=flu or otherwise isnt
isnt as in doesnt exist
( step for ward NJ et al - and chums)
and so we are invited to conclude - there isnt 100 000 extra dead
crayzee ! must be AB on a tue morning before 9 am
I dont
irrelvant pish
the excess death figure gives a more accurate figure
te big Lie is that 100 000 dead out there - smelling and unburied
and someone says covid=flu or otherwise isnt
isnt as in doesnt exist
( step for ward NJ et al - and chums)
and so we are invited to conclude - there isnt 100 000 extra dead
crayzee ! must be AB on a tue morning before 9 am
// nd the complication of their death certificates. //
as a judge you KNOW or ought to know that DC are a bad way of telling anything besides someone is dead
and yet you still lend your weight behind fairy stories that DCs without a post mortem are Gospel Truth - shame on you My Lord!
normal day on AB
as a judge you KNOW or ought to know that DC are a bad way of telling anything besides someone is dead
and yet you still lend your weight behind fairy stories that DCs without a post mortem are Gospel Truth - shame on you My Lord!
normal day on AB
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