Tories Lose Safe Seat

[gulliver1]

Chesham and Amersham. . Lib Dems take safe seat of Tories at Byelection

[dannyk13]

Oh dear! Gulliver won't like this.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9702297/Sir-Keir-Starmer-faces-humiliation-calls-quit-poll-shows-Labour-crushed-election.html

[ichkeria]

Ha ha like I say if the people who matter think like that they’re doomed.

Anyway, the last election effectively confirmed a change of government: the Tory party which won that was not the Tory party which won in 2015 - that’s part of the change so far …

[naomi24]

Going the right way then ... :o)

[ichkeria]

622 Labour votes I think the worst since the War.
On the other hand, tactical voting of the sort which saw Labour flatline there and the Libdems go the same way in Hartlepool could be Labour’s path to power, if only in coalition, tho many would deny it at the moment.

[gulliver1]

Bring back "TGM" Tony Blair . A great P/M, only ten years older than Boris which makes him all that wiser. He would make Johnson look like a Backbencher making his maiden speech. On second thoughts Boris always sounds like a Backbencher making his maiden speech.

[dannyk13]

Gulliver, I see that you are swerving any answer to my post at 10.34.

[ichkeria]

From Danny’s link:

“Remarkably, the Old Etonian Prime Minister is seen as a better champion for the North than Sir Keir, whose father was a toolmaker.”

But it’s only half the picture as I’ve been saying

[naomi24]

I don’t think it’s remarkable. Labour luvvies are as far removed from real life as it’s possible to be. They don’t speak for the working man - north or south - and they haven’t for a very long time. Hence they find themselves thoroughly rejected - and they’re still wondering why.

[ichkeria]

That is also an outdated view though. It’s plain that both the main parties are losing their traditional voters. It’s a complicated picture. Johnson is toxic in the actual north, (Scotland) popular it would seem in the middle. And not so hot further down. And talking of protest votes, how do we know the so called red wall phenomenon wasn’t just that.
Johnson is popular in spite of being an Old Etonian - Starmer I think is simply a problem of image or profile and nothing to do with tool making.

[Sunk]

The Conservatives will win the Bately & Spen by-election but that will not be as impressive as the LibDems win in Chesham & Amersham.
Labour have a tiny minority, the Conservatives have a better local candidate and the by-election has been called because the Labour MP threw in the towel and turned her back on her electors.
Definite territory for another brick in the red wall to fall.

[naomi24]

//And talking of protest votes, how do we know the so called red wall phenomenon wasn’t just that.//

I don’t think so. I’ve never known a dyed in the wool Labour voter to opt for another party as a protest. In normal circumstances they’d vote for a donkey if it was sporting a red rosette but having witnessed Labour’s antics in recent years I think even the most loyal of Labour supporters had no option but to reject them simply because they can see quite clearly that Labour doesn’t represent them in any way, shape or form. I know several who, because it went so much against the grain to vote Conservative, held their noses and gritted their teeth when they went to the polling booth but nevertheless scrawled their ‘X’ against their Conservative candidate’s name. Times are changing - and so are people and their lifestyles, ambitions and expectations - something Labour consistently fails to recognise.

[ichkeria]

Sure, but that could equally apply to the other side: and plainly is at the moment .
Which all makes for an interesting time

[Jackdaw33]

Danny's link to the local poll seems to bear out what I suggested yesterday; that Galloway's pro-Palestine stance could take enough Muslim votes from Labour to hand the Tories victory in what otherwise would have been a knife-edge contest.

[naomi24]

Plainly another bit of spin from you, Ichkeria. ;o)

[gulliver1]

11.38 "held their noses and gritted their teeth"
Any Labour voter voting Tory, fair enough if they wanted to change party, or were anti Corbyn . But to vote for Johnson they must have all been P*****

[naomi24]

No one voted for a Prime Minister, gulliver. That's not how British politics works.

[Jackdaw33]

Technically speaking true, Naomi, yet people cast their votes in the full knowledge that their party leader, if successful, will be PM, so I suppose you could say that he is indirectly elected.

[naomi24]

I disagree, Jackdaw. Given the opportunity to vote for a Prime Minister I would never have voted for Teresa May but her untrustworthy presence didn't stop me voting Conservative.

[dannyk13]

Gulliver, still no response to post at 10.34?

[jim360]

On the other hand, it seems difficult to deny that the 2017 and 2019 elections went very differently at least partly because of the change in leadership. Johnson has proven more popular, and more effective at whipping up popular support, and that's paid off. A party's leader matters.