ChatterBank0 min ago
It's Been Six Weeks...........
27 Answers
https:/
see post at 20:44.............................
see post at 20:44.............................
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And from the same thread:
"On the present trajectory, I shouldn't be too surprised if the Government's hand were forced in around late August/September, but we'll have to see."
As I mentioned in another thread, in July the top three causes of death (dementia, cancer and heart disease) each claimed four times as many lives as Covid did. So that's twelve deaths from those causes for every Covid death. And it's by no means certain that those who did die with a positive Covid result in the previous month actually died from it or would not have died from another cause at about the same time anyway. In the earlier waves last year huge numbers of people (some estimates put it as high as one in three of those who died apparently from the virus) contracted the virus in hospital, having been admitted without it.
Now that the vast majority of the population has been vaccinated it's time to move on. From the very beginning the government's strategy was to scare the population into compliance. That strategy was very successful. But it's done it's job (as well as it was ever going to) and threatening lockdowns is no way to run a country. Those that we've had have caused enormous damage of all sorts and it is about time those threats were consigned to the dustbin.
"On the present trajectory, I shouldn't be too surprised if the Government's hand were forced in around late August/September, but we'll have to see."
As I mentioned in another thread, in July the top three causes of death (dementia, cancer and heart disease) each claimed four times as many lives as Covid did. So that's twelve deaths from those causes for every Covid death. And it's by no means certain that those who did die with a positive Covid result in the previous month actually died from it or would not have died from another cause at about the same time anyway. In the earlier waves last year huge numbers of people (some estimates put it as high as one in three of those who died apparently from the virus) contracted the virus in hospital, having been admitted without it.
Now that the vast majority of the population has been vaccinated it's time to move on. From the very beginning the government's strategy was to scare the population into compliance. That strategy was very successful. But it's done it's job (as well as it was ever going to) and threatening lockdowns is no way to run a country. Those that we've had have caused enormous damage of all sorts and it is about time those threats were consigned to the dustbin.
//why even high-light (remind) that someone is wrong 5 or 6 weeks ago about us not being in lockdown because the death rate hasn't risen sharply//
But that's not gloating that "thousands more haven't died" is it? It's simply pointing out that a prediction somebody made a few weeks ago hasn't turned out to be correct.
The country's behaviour over the last eighteen months has been largely influenced by predictions that turned out to be incorrect (or more accurately "at the lower end of my estimate instead of the blood-curdling worst case scenario which I urged you to consider above all others"). This is just a smaller, more local version of that with, fortunately, far less damaging consequences as a result of it's inaccuracy. So there's nothing really for me to "get over" (whatever you might mean by that).
But that's not gloating that "thousands more haven't died" is it? It's simply pointing out that a prediction somebody made a few weeks ago hasn't turned out to be correct.
The country's behaviour over the last eighteen months has been largely influenced by predictions that turned out to be incorrect (or more accurately "at the lower end of my estimate instead of the blood-curdling worst case scenario which I urged you to consider above all others"). This is just a smaller, more local version of that with, fortunately, far less damaging consequences as a result of it's inaccuracy. So there's nothing really for me to "get over" (whatever you might mean by that).
new judge it was not aimed at you
it was the fact that someone even had to remind us that someone else was wrong 5 or 6 weeks ago with their prediction
so who cares that they were wrong in the scheme of things ?
I predict in 5 or 6 weeks we will have a severe storm which will cause localised flooding and high winds which will cause travel disruption and might even be a risk to life
let's see
it was the fact that someone even had to remind us that someone else was wrong 5 or 6 weeks ago with their prediction
so who cares that they were wrong in the scheme of things ?
I predict in 5 or 6 weeks we will have a severe storm which will cause localised flooding and high winds which will cause travel disruption and might even be a risk to life
let's see
Yep I was wrong.
But things aren’t exactly rosey.
Covid cases this time last year were 1500.
Yesterday they were 33,129 about 25 times worse.
6 weeks ago there were 29 daily deaths
Last week hit 174 a day.
Hospitalisations are up 10% on last week.
England's R rate is between 1 and 1.2, with Covid cases growing by up to two per cent each day, figures from the UK Health Security Agency revealed;
One in 70 people in England tested positive for Covid in the seven days up to August 20, according to data from the Office for National Statistics;
No lockdown and no resignations, but not good news either.
But things aren’t exactly rosey.
Covid cases this time last year were 1500.
Yesterday they were 33,129 about 25 times worse.
6 weeks ago there were 29 daily deaths
Last week hit 174 a day.
Hospitalisations are up 10% on last week.
England's R rate is between 1 and 1.2, with Covid cases growing by up to two per cent each day, figures from the UK Health Security Agency revealed;
One in 70 people in England tested positive for Covid in the seven days up to August 20, according to data from the Office for National Statistics;
No lockdown and no resignations, but not good news either.
I think it's worth revisiting, Gromit. daily relishes every difficulty this nation has. He was determined that we'd be forced into lockdown 6 weeks from 19th of July. I think it is valid to point out that not only is there no lock down, there is no talk of one. Gromit also bookmarked the post at the time and no doubt would also have posted on here today had his prediction come true.
Thankfully, any scenario that saw the Government being forced to backpedal by now was more or less instantly ruled out by the rapid and shocking drop in cases at the end of July, which saw in turn a stall in the rise of hospital cases/deaths, that lasted until about two weeks ago.
NJ's quote of my own post above irritatingly omits the line straight before it, which was that "these things are very difficult to predict". At the time I typed that, cases were rising at an extreme rate, and it seemed likely that the peak was going to be in a few weeks from then, rather than almost literally the very next day. I should expect most people were caught by surprise by the change.
NJ's quote of my own post above irritatingly omits the line straight before it, which was that "these things are very difficult to predict". At the time I typed that, cases were rising at an extreme rate, and it seemed likely that the peak was going to be in a few weeks from then, rather than almost literally the very next day. I should expect most people were caught by surprise by the change.
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