World War Iii ?

[Paul22118]

I heard a report on the radio this morning that the Russian foreign minister thinks there is a distinct possibility of the 'conflict' escalating into World War III. What do you think? Personally I see it as a very real possibility.

[Khandro]

Gromit //// They're [the SAS] already there [in Russia], you can be certain of that. //

Crazy.//

I don't think & I didn't say, they are in Russia.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sas-troops-are-training-local-forces-in-ukraine-32vs5bjzb

[Gromit]

Sorry Khandro,
I miss understood your post.
Burlyshirley said Putin should be brought to his knees, then suggested the SAS could do that.

I agree, SAS and other UK personnel are training Ukrainian fighters.

[archibaldy]

Unfortunately I think it will escalate somehow - mainly due to the lack of Russian progress at the current levels - what escalation looks like who knows.

I shouldn't think that the "distinct possibility of the 'conflict' escalating into World War III" has only just suddenly occurred to the Russians.

[Khandro]

Donald knows how to talk to Putin in the kind of language he can understand.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1601012/Trump-warning-Vladimir-Putin-Russia-nuclear-war-video-vn

[Hopkirk]

The problem is that for the deterrence to work, leaders need to be rational thinking people.
Putin is unhinged. He shows a total lack of empathy for suffering, even of his own people.

[davebro]

Unless Russia (Putin) quickly negotiates a settlement with Ukraine then Russia is finished as world power & destined to become another N Korea because economic sanctions will be continued and intensified.

I think he may well see a nuclear war (in which everyone is ruined) as somehow preferable.

[ToraToraTora]

10cs: "Wasn't there a situation back in the 1980's where a Russian commander in charge of a launch site received orders to launch the missiles at the U.S.? He didn't follow his orders as he thought it was an error, which turned out to be true. " - Yes I heard about that 10cs, it was some sort of instrument/data problem.

[ichkeria]

I doubt whether Putin is unhinged.
He may live in his own bubble and see things very differently. And he’s not the only one: in some ways he actually appears saner than some of the people beneath him. He probably really did think he could take Ukraine quickly because he was badly briefed.
He doesn’t just look physically ill: he looks like a man who knows he’s blundered strategically but still thinks he can win.
However, no one on the outside - and possibly many if not most in the inside come to that - don’t really know

[jno]

you're correct, Clarion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov

[Gromit]

Russia is not winning the war and Putin needs an exit.
He will not agree to a US or EU brokered deal because he distrusts them.
China could end this tomorrow with a resolution at the UN Security Council. At the moment everyone is losing so China should seize the initiative and bump both their heads together.

[Khandro]

^^^^ interesting link jno, thanks, I think it shows that then, & maybe even more so now, the launching of a nuclear weapon isn't down to one person only.

[naomi24]

I wonder if we will look back on this and regret not doing more sooner.

Incidentally, my husband was talking to someone rather high up in the military yesterday about the way the way is going and weapons, tactics, etc, and he said ‘Russia WILL NOT win this war’. I hope he’s right.

[naomi24]

*the way the war is going

[Hopkirk]

Russia cannot win this war. Putin won't be prepared to lose it. There's the problem.

[ichkeria]

China is going to sort the problem?

I doubt that very much

Putin won’t talk unless he either thinks he had what he wants or has lost
Also, a permanent ceasefire is problematic: we had that in 2014 and look where we are now.
We should not agree to that either

[ichkeria]

“he said ‘Russia WILL NOT win this war’. I hope he’s right”

I’m confident he’s right Naomi.
But we’ll see

[Hopkirk]

China is too busy losing its own war with covid.

[davebro]

Going forward every penny, cent, kopek of Russia's seized assets should be applied to the rebuilding of Ukraine. NOTHING must ever be returned to them.

[grumpy01]

Unfortunately Ukraine can’t ultimately win on their own.They have put up a great fight with all the armaments supplied but the weight of numbers of personnel and armaments the Russians will sadly overcome the stout resistance.

[ichkeria]

Ukraine is not on its own.
Furthermore while it is using a lot of weaponry so is Russia. There is no way they have the manpower to control Ukraine and of course they now realise this. They’ve used a lot of their precision munitions already and will have trouble replacing these due to sanctions
They’ll soon be relying on conscripts.
Ukraine on the other hand has tens of thousands being trained and waiting in the wings.