Can We Trust Expert Scientists?

[Theland]

Most notably on climate change, but on many other subjects as well such as vaccinations, diet, and a myriad of other things, can we trust scientists?
How do we mame decisions?

My personal interests are origin of the universe, origin of life, and evolution.

What do you think?

[jim360]

// You don't know their children, Jim. They do. //

Maybe so, but that's irrelevant to assessing the origin of their children's autism. It was not caused by the vaccines. It defies all evidence to continue to insist otherwise. I'm sorry for the children and their families, but the parents are blaming the wrong thing.

[TheDevil]

I personally think just because someone has a child and hasn't realised their child is autistic before they vaccinate their child is not grounds to believe anything that comes from their wildly emotionally driven words.

[naomi24]

And you know this. Jim? Actually you don't. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence - and that's something you should know. These parents know their children. They knew them before the jab - and they know them now. You, despite all your bluster, don't know them at all. You have no idea.

[jim360]

// Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence - and that's something you should know.//

I do know it, of course, but I fancy that I know what it means rather a lot better than you do.

[Peter Pedant]

// I personally think just because someone has a child and hasn't realised their child is autistic before they vaccinate their child is not grounds //

erm this is what happens - the onset of autism is around the time for vaccinations - so the child behaves 'off' after a shot but in fact the autism is beginning to show

and you show THAT by long term expensive trials where there is no look back but you follow prospectively a few thousand or ten thousand children and then just look at the 2-5% who have any reactions. These cost a lot of money and it is important to get it right first time round - I think wakeford was asked if he wanted to pay for all the money he had wasted in tracking down his bad views and he said no thanks

[naomi24]

//I fancy that I know what it means rather a lot better than you do. //

If only.

[Ellipsis]

I take it nobody read the link I posted:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/mmr-vaccine-dispelling-myths/measles-mumps-rubella-mmr-maintaining-uptake-of-vaccine

[jim360]

I can tell that I do because you are applying it wrongly. In this case the fact that multiple long-term clinical studies exist, all of which have sought evidence for a link between autism and vaccines, and have found none. This is evidence of absence. Absence of evidence therefore doesn't come into it here, because there is *plenty* of evidence of no such link. I again refer you to the studies in Japan, or the Cochrane Review, or official NHS advice, or the Centre for Disease Control, and so on. The critical point here, therefore, is that you're confusing the two propositions.

[Peter Pedant]

// And you know this. Jim? Actually you don't. //
oh - Ni ( hi ni!) as mystic meg and mind reader

wellback in the lab
even following prospectively large numbers of children after vaccination or not
even THAT is open to criticism ( Ni breathlessly: I told you so!) as the non vaccs have been selected ( so it aint random)
that is the parents have decided no ....

now tell me what is happening in Samoa - (sam-wearer? a punster will quip!) The story so far: samoa had a vaccine accident - the vaccine reconstitued with potassium or lignocaine - whoops ! affecting three children and just about the whole population of Samoa declined further vaccination. A few years later someone wiv measles landed in Samoa. The parents still failed to vaccinat their children and a measles outbreak started
now what
oh look here is an update !
https://reliefweb.int/report/samoa/health-emergency-operation-centre-update-measles-outbreak-january-20-2020

scroll down to - - - 83 deaths in children affected. yikes
only looked the pm and didnt expect that

Now tell me Ni - did you reach here? - did you vaccinate your own children or did you expose them to the risk of totally avoidable death by failing to have them inoculated with MMR ?

[Peter Pedant]

// This is evidence of absence. Absence of evidence therefore doesn't come into it here, because there is *plenty* of evidence of no such link. //

well explained Jim -

I thought of exactly this and then thought of the average intelligence of an AB poster and thought no - hopeless absolutely hopeless, dont even try

[naomi24]

And you're going around in circles. The bottom line, Jim, is that you have no experience of children who have, their parents believe, been affected by this vaccine some of whom have displayed adverse behaviour within days of it being administered. I err on the side of caution. There is no reason, other than a financial one, that these vaccines cannot be given separately.

[TheDevil]

The bottom line, Naomi24, is that you have no experience of science.

[jim360]

"Their parents believe " is not even remotely equivalent to "A huge body of evidence indicates".

[TheDevil]

The parents may have never been in a situation with their child where they saw autistic traits, until some random person who the child doesn't know comes along and stabs them with a needle.

Vaccines have no scientific relation to autism and implying they do is genuinely dangerous for society.

[TheDevil]

Antivaxers can put themselves with flat earthers as far as i'm concerned.

[naomi24]

Haha! The next time I need advice on the subject I'll ask you then, TD. ;o)

[TheDevil]

Naomi24, i find it surprising you're siding with "their parents believe" over "expert scientists".

[naomi24]

//"A huge body of evidence indicates". //

Who said that, Jim?

[TheDevil]

Naomi24, that seems to be a great idea! I await our connection x

[jim360]

Who said what? I've provided links to a huge body of evidence. I don't see why I'd need to explicitly say so too.