Eu Referendum Vote

[Gromit]

The vote if it is passed, compels the next Government to hold an In/Out referendum on EU Membership. I have a couple of questions.

If the Conservatives want this, why do they not have an In/Out vote now?

If a referendum on Europe after the election is guaranteed, does that not mean that anti Europe voters are more likely to vote UKiP and not Conservative?

[AB Editor]

"If the Conservatives want this, why do they not have an In/Out vote now?"

Clegg won't allow it in a coalition government year most likely?

"If a referendum on Europe after the election is guaranteed, does that not mean that anti Europe voters are more likely to vote UKiP and not Conservative?"

That's interesting - does it empower UKIP? I think the idea is to take away their "unique selling point", so natural Tory voters on the right don't get dragged away to UKIP and cost Cameron a majority.

[jim360]

I think the Conservatives don't want an In/ Out vote now because a) they probably don't want it at all really, and b) nominally a vote in a few years gives the government time to negotiate a "better" settlement, which is the thing that we'd actually be voting on.

[ludwig]

// If a referendum on Europe after the election is guaranteed, does that not mean that anti Europe voters are more likely to vote UKiP and not Conservative? //

I don't follow that logic at all. Surely the point of it is to say to all the wavering tory voters - 'look, there's no need to vote UKIP now - we're giving you the referendum anyway'. ?

[LazyGun]

That was always my understanding of the motivations of tory high command. Promise an in/out referendum after next election, thus persuading wavering tory eurosceptics to remain tory rather than voting UKip, whilst giving time to negotiate some cosmetically better euro deal.....

[modeller]

If we voted to stay In Cameron ( who wants to stay in ) wouldn't need to negotiate at all.
He knows from the polls a vote now would almost certainly be Out but he also knows he will never get the treaty changes we want, and without them ,he would then be forced to honour the Out vote.


Quite simply he dare not have a vote now but hopes to con us long enough
to get himself re-elected. He will then try for a // LG , cosmetically better euro deal..... //
He could start negotiating now but he knows that is a lost cause.

He has one advantage , he knows the Labour Party and the Libs will always bow down to whatever the EU inflicts on us. So the Tory faithful would normally stay with him but not next time , they have UKIP.

[Quizmonster]

"The vote if it is passed, compels the next Government to hold an In/Out referendum." Does it? What's to stop an incoming Labour government - were that to be the case - from deciding to cancel any such legislation or compulsion? Surely no government can "compel" the next to do anything it doesn't want to do.

[Octavius]

They would need to confirm before the election whether their party will continue with the referendum which would swing votes.

[jim360]

I suppose there is nothing in principle to stop the Labour Party or others from repealing legislation like this but... would they be brave (or foolhardy) enough to do so? Not providing a referendum is one thing. Taking it away when it was promised and indeed enshrined in law is quite another. I would expect that if this passes into law it will stay there and we will have a referendum.

[New Judge]

Mr Cameron knows that no parliament can bind its successors. All the next government - whatever its party or parties - has to do is to simply repeal any legislation passed as a result of this vote today.

This “private member’s bill” is nonsense. If Mr Cameron really wanted to introduce such legislation he would do so under government auspices. I know Mr Clegg would not allow such a move but that’s what happens when you have weak government. The best thing Mr Cameron can do is to make it an absolute firm manifesto commitment to provide an in/out referendum soon after the next election should the Tories be returned with an overall majority.

The only trouble he has with that is that nobody in their right mind would trust him to deliver on that promise.

[youngmafbog]

It's not just Clegg that want in (mainly so he can get back on the gravy train when he is booted out next election) but Cameron too.

And both know what the result would be if held today. I suspect their thinking is that once the economy picks up (mainly in the EU) things will seem rosier and the public mass will then vote based on whether they have to take a passport to Spain or similar ridiculous reasoning.

[ToraToraTora]

The basic issue is that it's in the interest of the politicians to have a field of corruption to take their useless sorry ar5se to when they get ousted. So we all must suffer subjugation so Camereon et al can have a gravy trough to get their snout asnd trotters into when it's all over. This is the one issue that you can be assured of cross part cooperation. As the people our job is merely to pay for the show. The EU is run by politicians for politicians, it serves no useful purpose.

[modeller]

Quizmaster //he would then be forced to honour the Out vote. //

Did I say the next government ? I said ' he '.

[mikey4444]

The last thing that Cameron wants right now is any vote on the EU. He knows, as do all the previous Tory Leaders, that the EU is a toxic subject for his party. It has torn them apart before and it can do it again. It can only lead to more support for BNP-lite.

[Quizmonster]

Muddler - I see you still haven't quite learned to cope with the name QuizmONster - the reference in my earlier contribution to this thread had nothing whatsoever to do with what you wrote, but was solely aimed at the first line of the original post...Gromit's actual question!

[modeller]

Sorry ! Quizmonster I admit you are the .....mONster not the .....master.
I must try to do better next time.

[mikey4444]

BNP-lite all the way... I keep hearing all those knuckles dragging along the ground !

[Quizmonster]

Attaboy, Modeller! (In case you query my presentation of your name, I always use upper case for the introductory letter of names unless, of course, I refer to e e cummings, for example.)