This Deal Or No Brexit At All

[-Talbot-]

https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1105238043106181120


When was 'No Deal' taken off the table?



https://twitter.com/SimonPearson961/status/1105241140943568897

[jim360]

Round three will presumably be the exact same deal again, only with No Deal having been ruled out definitively in the interim period...

Actually I have no idea what it will be: beyond the near-certainty that, if the matter is left only to Parliament, a No-Deal Brexit will be ruled out, who the heck knows what happens next? Best speculation seems to be that it is entirely dependent on the margin of defeat, eg a narrow defeat allows Theresa May to have one more try to get her deal through*, in a couple of weeks or so, whereas something more substantial paves the way for a change of Parliament (ie, General Election) or of leadership.

*I'm sure there's a hint of irony in narrow margins being seen as indecisive enough to allow for a second round, but I just can't quite put my finger on why...

[jim360]

Up to 17 switchers now, in case anyone is counting. So at least the margin of defeat is set to be less than 200.

[ichkeria]

Hasn’t one labour MP who voted for the deal before now decided to vote against (!)

[naomi24]

Jim, //I'm sure there's a hint of irony in narrow margins being seen as indecisive enough to allow for a second round, but I just can't quite put my finger on why... //

There's a hint of irony in carrying on until you get the result you want ....

[jim360]

No idea, Ich.

No matter how much in favour of Brexit you are as an end, you still have to accept that there are many possible means -- theoretically, at least -- to achieve it. If each one keeps getting defeated, either because it is unacceptable to Brexiters or unacceptable to everybody else, then where does that leave us?

At the moment though, N, we are united on this deal at least. We both think it should be rejected, unconditional on what that leads to. But where next? No Deal is economically damaging, or even ruinous, and in any case is not even a destination: it's merely an inconvenient stopping-point until one side or the other recognises that coming to an agreement is far more important than any principle.

[naomi24]

Weak.

[Ellipsis]

How on God's clean Earth is a change of leadership going to help when literally nothing is being decided by the leader, everything is being put through Parliament, and Parliament rejects everything that's put through it. Doesn't it take these people more than two weeks to elect a new leader anyway?

Perhaps a true leader would just say "Screw it, this is what we're doing", announce something that would inevitably upset more than half the country and be done with it.

[jim360]

Well, whatever.

In any case it's out of our hands now. More likely than not, the only way to get what you want out of this is to support a second referendum, whether or not it has No Deal on the ballot paper.

[naomi24]

Jim, //More likely than not, the only way to get what you want out of this is to support a second referendum, whether or not it has No Deal on the ballot paper.//

What a silly thing to say. How on earth will leavers get what they want if No Deal isn’t an option – and it won’t be. I hate what this country has become - weak, ineffectual, fawning and subservient.

[Ellipsis]

> More likely than not, the only way to get what you want out of this is to support a second referendum, whether or not it has No Deal on the ballot paper.

A single transferable vote referendum as follows:

What next?
* Remain [1] [2]
* Deal [1] [2]
* No Deal [1] [2]

with the ballot papers randomised, showing the answers in the following order:

one sixth Remain, Deal, No Deal
one sixth Remain, No Deal, Deal
one sixth Deal, Remain, No Deal
one sixth Deal, No Deal, Remain
one sixth No Deal, Remain, Deal
one sixth No Deal, Deal, Remain

[jim360]

Since Leavers are split on the question of whether or not to accept this deal, it seems that some wouldn't get what they want anyway, regardless of whether or not No Deal is an option. More important is whether you want to have at least some sort of Brexit, rather than none at all.

[Kromovaracun]

There are in point of fact plenty of leavers who don't want No Deal, so 'leavers' as one constituency are impossible to please unanimously. But we've danced this rodeo many a time before.

[naomi24]

Jim, I didn't vote to stay in .... in any shape or form.

[jim360]

Also, I utterly reject the idea that any of this makes the UK weak and subservient, or any of the other descriptions in your post. Economic realities mean that we can't just cut away from the EU and run without taking a hit, but then most states are in a similar position -- if not directly with the EU, then certainly in the way they depend on others. Even economic powerhouses such as China would crash and burn were it not for their trading relationships with others.

[naomi24]

Weak.

[jim360]

Latest news I see is that around 30-ish Tory MPs have said they will vote for this deal -- and sometimes for contemptible reasons -- but both the ERG and DUP will vote against it.

So at least from tonight we can move on and discuss what happens next.

[jim360]

Hope there's not a tech issue over your way, N, that's the second time you've posted the same thing. Connection problems, perhaps?

[naomi24]

Jim, Connection problems indeed - but nothing to do with my computer. Disconnected from needy people who are so dependent that they can't see a future for this country without it being tied to nanny EU.

[jim360]

Well, full marks for spinning that one round so skilfully, at least. :)

Still a massive misrepresentation though: the UK's future is significantly better inside the EU than out, but that is worlds away from claiming that there is no future outside the EU.

[naomi24]

Jim, don't assume we're all like you. I don't 'spin'. Listening to you with your continual prophecies of doom one could be forgiven for thinking that outside the EU this country would sink without trace ... but it won't.