2019 Uk General Election Predicts:

[Gromit]

650 Seats contested. Here is my prediction...

My Prediction:
Conservative - 297 (-20)
Labour - 278 (+16) includes Speaker.
LibDem - 14 (+2)
SNP - 38 (+3)
Plaid 3 (-1)
DUP 7 (-3)
Sinn Fein - 8 (+1)
SDLP - 3 (+2)
Independent - 1 (-)
Green - 1 (-)
Brexit Party - 0 (-)
UKIP - 0 (-)
Change UK - 0 (-)

[GymLadTim]

I agree with Gromit's - then again anything can happen in an election campaign. I think the Tories are going to struggle with the line that Britain deserves better and investing in services when they have been in charge for 9 years and many in the cabinet voted for the policies that have got us where we are.

An interesting question would be if this is a hung parliament or a result close to what we have now. Where does that leave the country with moving forward with Brexit and the domestic agenda.

[diddlydo]

Given that the best outcome would be Jo Swinson as PM but that is unlikely to happen......next best scenario a Labour government, next best a hung parliament so Brexit could be delayed/postponed for ever. Worst scenario - Tory/Brexit parliament and we have to play at being little Englanders without the support of all our friends and allies in Europe.

[Gromit]

diddlydo
The Brexit Party are not going to win any seats, so they will not be forming any coalition with anyone.
The LibDems will be the kingmakers again. If Labour do not win, then Corbyn can be ditched and a LibDem/Labour coalition could happen.
Can’t see Swinson and Johnson forming an alliance.
So it could be just more of the same limbo until yetanother GE in a few years.

[fender62]

diddlydo, all our friends and allies in Europe. may i ask how old are you, we do not have any friends in europe, you really think they care about the uk...on a political level they do not, it's all about money, our money, they do not give a monkeys, do you think they all site down for tea and think..oh our poor family in the uk, please dont leave, do you know anything about economics trade traffic corporations banking, britain is not a loser here, a lot of money..and i mean a lot of money, trades through uk banking, we do not need the eu to do that...oh no, they need us....we are a giant hub, and that will never change, no one trusts any eu pro banking org....

[Old_Geezer]

The difference is that on this occasion the public will understand that it is blatantly obvious that lack of progress was less to do with the party in government and overwhelmingly to do with opposition parties deliberately preventing progress. One can not compare the two. Consequently the Tory party will make impressive gains if the Brexit party doesn't convince sufficient to hope for no-deal in the new year. Undemocratic parties should see major falls as it's clear they can not be trusted with having a say in a democratic nation.

[fender62]

sterling will always remain.. now if the deutsche mark ever returns
we have an understanding, the franc will never be anything, less tied to the mark or sterling, its about trust...ever heard the, old bank of england..the world knows dependable, ever heard of lloyds of london
do not under estimate, less stain the u.k england

[diddlydo]

Fender - I'm more than old enough to know on which side our bread is buttered and that's in partnership with EU countries.

[Gromit]

OG
If The LibDems campaign on a Remain stance, and gain seats from hard brexiteer Party(s) then it is hardly undemocratic. The public often change their minds between General Elections, and it is highly possible that voters may have changed their minds since 2016.

[Jackdaw33]

We can but wait and see, but my impression is that the stance in favour of Brexit has hardened rather that softened.

[fender62]

diddlydo, they need us, we certainly dont need a load of dead weightsdragging us down into a federal state, are you glad the invited romania and other basket case countries into the union, id prefer they stayed under the soviets, or went free on there won accord, not asking for handouts...it should have remained a trading market only, look what merkel has done, inviting a million people over, and expecting every country to take a quota, where's the democracy...whe is telling, the eu acolytes are backing her up, so who holds the power...germany says, jump you jump...as you said, our friends...think again.

[Jackdaw33]

Exactly. I am now of the opinion that bringing down the Berlin Wall was a big mistake.

[Old_Geezer]

They've already proven themselves undemocratic. Some fantasy about them gaining seats don't come into it.

[ichkeria]

Labour has lost a seat before the election has even been held with the appointment of Sir Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker.
I don’t think it’s at all possible to predict anything seriously at the moment. There may yet be unspoken agreements between the two Brexit parties and there are certainly going to be at least local pacts between Lib Dems, greens and Plaid Cymru.
Even in N Ireland the SDLP are standing down in at least one seat (East Belfast) to maximise the “Remain” vote so that may get prove unpredictable.
The Tories could lose all their seats in Scotland and more than a few a lot further south so they’ll need so called Workington man to come up trumps for them.

[diddlydo]

Jackdaw - do you never stop to appreciate that it's people from eastern European countries who are responsible for e.g. putting your Brussels sprouts on the table? Not to mention doing countless other jobs that you'd turn up your nose at?

[Gromit]

Ick,
// Sinn Féin will not run candidates in three of Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies to boost the chances of other anti-Brexit candidates in next month’s election.

The party announced on Monday it would stand aside in South Belfast, East Belfast and North Down to give pro-remain candidates an edge against DUP candidates. //

// The pact could help Sinn Féin’s John Finucane take the North Belfast seat held by the DUP deputy leader, Nigel Dodds, help the SDLP’s Claire Hanna topple the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly in South Belfast, and help Lady Sylvia Hermon, an independent unionist MP, fend off a DUP challenge in North Down. //

My predictions for N.I. above, was based on this information.

[davebro]

I think the new Parliament will be pretty much as it is now. Tories & Libdems may gain a few, Labour lose a few. But still a hung Parliament unwilling to vote through ANY deal. Clock will run down to 31 Jan and there will be the usual kerfuffle about another extension. Hopefully the EU will say enough is enough & kick us out, but that is uncertain.

[ToraToraTora]

I think you are being generous to labour gromit, they've had 2 years of open goals and managed to cut their popularity, you only have to look at the site poll.

[cassa333]

The Brexit party will take more votes from Labour than Conservative.

(Generally speaking) Conservative voters might at a push vote Labour but Labour voters wouldn’t vote Conservative and Labour leave voters will only have TBP to vote for.

My prediction is simply that regardless of how many millions of votes TBP get they are unlikely to get many or any MPs. Labour will lose some. Nondems might gain some from die hard remainers. Conservatives gain some.

Overall... hung parliament and a coalition.

[ToraToraTora]

jimf, 15 seats for the greens? Have you got magic mushrooms in your haggis?

[ToraToraTora]

cassa: "The Brexit party will take more votes from Labour than Conservative." - good point, there are many leave Lavour voters who can't bring themselves to vote Tory and Brexit party would be a choice for them. Most Tories who may be considering voting Brexit know that the government was only thwarted by the HOQ and to vote brexit will only reduce the chances of brexit.