2019 Uk General Election Predicts:

[Gromit]

650 Seats contested. Here is my prediction...

My Prediction:
Conservative - 297 (-20)
Labour - 278 (+16) includes Speaker.
LibDem - 14 (+2)
SNP - 38 (+3)
Plaid 3 (-1)
DUP 7 (-3)
Sinn Fein - 8 (+1)
SDLP - 3 (+2)
Independent - 1 (-)
Green - 1 (-)
Brexit Party - 0 (-)
UKIP - 0 (-)
Change UK - 0 (-)

[ToraToraTora]

gromit: "The man (and woman) in the street are fed up with the malaise of the last 2 and a half years and blame the (Tory) Government, and will vote for a change (but not quite achieve that). " - you're deluded, most know that the government has been thwarted by the HOQ and will punish the latter accordingly.

[Gromit]

Tora,
The Polls are not infallible. Take this from the day before the 2017 General Election...
// ComRes’ latest poll published before election day puts the Conservatives on 44 per cent of the vote, down three points, Labour on 34 per cent, down one, the Liberal Democrats on 9 per cent, Ukip on 5 per cent and the Greens on 2 per cent, all up one. If correct, it also puts Ms May on course for a solid 74-seat majority //

A 75 seat majority for the Conservatives was your final prediction in 2017. And they got no majority.

[10ClarionSt]

Oh dear. Sounds like there might be some hanging and flogging then! :o)

[ToraToraTora]

gromit: "A 75 seat majority for the Conservatives was your final prediction in 2017. And they got no majority. " - yes and as I have told you N times and you fail to acknowledge, May got only 0.7 of 1 percentage point less than Blair in 1997 but 100 seats less, Corbyn was close to that too but each side cancelled out the other. The electorate were the most polarised in history, that wont happen this time if Boris get's the same percentage as May he'll do better this time. Will you at least acknowledge this point ?

[Bigbad]

Yes, TTT, people are fed up. But this has led to people giving up and being willing to accept the crap deal.

Yes, Mr Johnson has hit a brick wall at every turn, and yes, Mrs May was weak when she considered the remainers and the EU in everything she did, rather than implementing the wishes of the majority.
And yes, If you have money to waste and disagree with something, you can now go to court and get your own way, but with the ERG backing the deal I think the fat lady has now sung.

If I thought there was a glimmer of hope that things would improve, then I’d vote Conservative, but I can’t see that happening and I’m not prepared to shrug my shoulders and pretend that ‘it’ll do.’

[saintpeter48]

People like Soubry, Cooper etc, who have done a complete u-turn, others like Swinson have done a double u-turn, a lot of Labour MPs will not say what they want and are campaigning on saying that they will take it back to the people with a 'remain or remain' option!!! All of these people need to get a good kicking at the GE, I just hope and pray we get rid of the traitors, they are just not listening to the general public!

[ToraToraTora]

gromit, will you acknowledge my point at 09:28.

[ludwig]

I think things are almost impossible to predict these days, and opinion polls don't help anything. I can't see it being a good result for Labour though.

[Old_Geezer]

It's about pragmatism. One wants event 'A', one realises one can presently only get event 'a'. Getting fed up may be a factor, but accepting reality and grabbing something that can hopefully be improved later, is just logical. Although I accept that if the agreement is rejected there is still the hope of leaving at the new deadline; but we've been there many times already and it keeps being blocked by MPs and the EU. Most have naturally lost faith in hitting the nation's head against that wall again.

[Mozz71]

My only prediction is that whatever happens there'll be whining and whinging from all parties.

[ichkeria]

Thanks Gromit.
I wasn’t necessarily saying your prediction was wrong.
Alliance look best placed to oust Gavin Robinson in E Belfast tho.
The problem with Sinn Fein from a Remain point of view is they don’t take their seats but at least they’d further reduce the number of DUP MPs potentially.

[naomi24]

I think Brexit will be uppermost in the electorate's thoughts, and therefore I wouldn't attempt to predict the outcome.

[Jackdaw33]

I think you are half right, Naomi. Brexit will be uppermost in Leavers' minds but I suspect less in Remainers' minds.

[ichkeria]

Brexit will be all the more in voters minds if the word “Brexit” as in “Brexit party” is on 600-odd ballot papers.
I wonder who that will help ...

[Gromit]

Tora,
// The electorate were the most polarised in history, that wont happen this time //

I disagree, I reckon they are even more polarised. And instead of just Labour and Conservative as a voting option, the LibDems, SNP and the Brexit Party will take votes from the two main Parties.
The public want brexit to be done one way or another. They are completely sick of it. Labour and the Conservatives will see both their voter share hugely reduced* because the voters are dissatisfied with both of them. Unfortunately that will result in another hung parliament.

* Labour will increase seats but get less votes because they will be less harmed from the 5 way voter split than the Conservatives.

[ToraToraTora]

yes but do you acknowledge why Mrs May got 100 seats less than Blair with almost identical percentages?

[diddlydo]

Gromit - who are "the public who want Brexit done"? No member of the public who I know personally.

[Gromit]

// May got only 0.7 of 1 percentage point less than Blair in 1997 but 100 seats less //

True. But Corbyn in second place did far better than Major in second place in 1997, which accounts for the seat discrepancy. Major got 30% of the vote, and Corbyn got 40% and 3 million more votes.

[ToraToraTora]

yes in any other election either side wold have had a large majority. I ask again do you acknowledge the reason why?

[Gromit]

Tora,
I am not deliberately missing your point.
The 2017 General Election was unusual because UKIP imploded and the Conservatives gained millions of votes from that, and also the SNP had a meltdown and the Tories did very well in Scotland.
Labour also benefited from UKIP and regained from the LibDems in England. With 40% of the vote, that would have been enough for Labour to win the 2010 and 2015 General Elections.