Covid Mortality Figures A Farce.

[retrocop]

If you are run over by a bus today and die and you tested positive for Covid 19 back in February then your death is reported as Covid related death by PHE. If this is true then it makes a mockery of almost anything our so called 'experts' are shovelling down our throats. It seems like spreading alarm and despondency for some sinister purpose.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/07/17/matt-hancock-calling-urgent-review-exaggerated-coronavirus-death-toll-13002134/?ito=push-notification&ci=23329&si=9444196

[jno]

I'd like to hear the facts on this, retro. While I appreciate that you were exaggerating for effect when you talked about being run over by a bus, there's nothing in the story itself that says you're wrong.

I note that the story is just about England, and may be part of the government's propaganda war on Public Health England to try to blame them for everything.

[teacake44]

11.07 And that's the only sinister purpose involved here. :0)

[ichkeria]

Dear goodness the conspiracy theory stuff on all sides is tiresome

[davebro]

I think the 65,000 excess deaths is the more significant figure, but as the vast majority of those were in care homes of very elderly and/or very sick people it simply means they have died a little sooner than they otherwise might have. Sad but not too tragic.

Correspondingly I would expect the death rate in the coming months to plunge way below the previous averages. If it doesn't then it means Covid is still with us.

[allenlondon]

Peter P.

Having been involved in a covid death, I’d have thought a lymphoma death might be marginally preferable, drifting off in a cloud of morphine.

However, your death, your choice. Our tears.

Sorry to blub. Just that there aren’t many left that I have respect for.

Not yet, eh?

[KARL]

There is no getting away from it, the urgency to set up smoke and mirrors is now very pressing. What better than to completely discredit all the already inaccurate statistics. There will be nothing left to discuss, class dismissed.

"It seems that PHE regularly looks for people on the NHS database who have ever tested positive, and simply checks to see if they are still alive or not." This is one way to highlight the hopeless (anti) British chaos and crass bungling which is such an easy target. No wonder foreigners are dumbstruck in disbelief at the revelations in the farce.

[fiction-factory]

^ predictable.
From previous threads I've gathered our statistics are rubbish, our NHS is poorer than the health services in most other major countries, and our governments are always poor.

[KARL]

"If it doesn't then it means Covid is still with us." No it won't, it would just mean that the incompetence/ineptitude is still increasing. As everyone by now knows, elsewhere Covid is only quite rarely a death sentence and the reason it so frequently is within the UK is a UK phenomenon, although not uniquely so. This is all about how well "the system" works, in every respect/aspect.

[fiction-factory]

Whatever measure is used there is no doubt Covid has had a major impact on excess mortality, although we need to wait to see whether the high figure so far is offset by reductions over the next 6 months or so , if some deaths have simply been brought forward by a few months.
What the issue in the OP does highlight though the difficulty of comparing covid data between England/Scotland and UK v rest of the world. Excess deaths will be a more reliable measure to compare countries

[jim360]

It's been pointed out before how flawed using the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is as a comparison between countries, so using that to argue that Covid-19 is more frequently a death sentence here than elsewhere is flawed. Indeed it's also illogical: although there might be reason to expect *some* national variations (eg if a population is older on average, etc), it is unlikely to be so dramatic as the CFR makes out: Covid-19 won't discriminate to that extent in "choosing" whom it kills. And, of course, the other key driver is the decision in how many people you test, and whom you test, and in both of these the UK has focused on the symptomatic or the vulnerable. Naturally that would lead to a high CFR. It's a selection bias, pure and simple.


At the other end of the scale, as best I can tell, the lowest CFR in the world is probably in Singapore, running at about 0.05% currently. This is likely to be due to sheer luck, eg because the infected in Singapore are mostly (a) migrant workers, and (b) young-ish/otherwise fairly healthy -- at this point it's fairly uncontroversial that Covid-19 is a threat mainly to those with other health conditions, and so Singapore's pandemic has so far not been as deadly as elsewhere.

None of this is meant to absolve the UK of blame for its failings, but looking at the CFR as your main indicator for a nation's performance is simply misleading.

[jim360]

In terms of the OP, if the data is flawed then this needs to be uncovered. I'd far rather the data is continually re-evaluated and checked so that flaws are exposed than not, and in that sense I'd welcome a review if this was the sort of thing that, especially lately, was slipping through the net. But it clearly cannot and should not be used to obscure the genuine effect we've seen in other death data ie the ONS figures I provided earlier.

[KARL]

Testing in the UK has been an on/off affair and always, always way too low. This applies to infections of survivors and fatalities alike and thus the (UK) records have always been subject to criticism/doubt/cynicism/ridicule etc. Other countries are known to also have flawed records but there are quite a few countries which have very detailed and reliable records. It is notable how the discussion on here and within society at large now often revolves around finding examples that are worse than the UK. As sad as this is there is a distinct upside: There is growing acceptance in the UK that the UK is, after all, not the World's Best and that is quite new. There is hope that an aspiration toward change and improvement might eventually find favour within the UK - this would amount to a radical cultural shift.

[jim360]

I won't argue with that sentiment -- it's jarring, for example hearing Johnson talk about "world-beating" test-and-trace systems, as if saying it makes it so in spite of evidence. I just wish you'd back up the sentiment with a better appreciation of what the statistics and data you are using are actually saying.

[Theland]

Peter Pedant, best wishes for your treatment.

[campbellking]

To be honest, it's all a bit of a mess. As a NHS worker who has continually working with known COVID + patients I have had 3 swab tests and no results (all done recently as only symptomatic people were being tested earlier). I have had an antibody test 3 weeks ago and am still waiting for the results (was informed at the time it would be a 2 week wait) . We are finally getting some idea of best management, but we still have a long and tricky road ahead, and I wish they would make it shorter because I'm getting a nice pressure sore on my nose from wearing FFP3 masks....

[Gromit]

600,000 people die every year in the UK. That figure includes people being run over by buses, and a variety of other causes.
So far 63,000 extra deaths above normal have occurred. 63,000 people haven’t suddenly become bus-blind, the change is people dying of Covid-19.
The official Covid death rate is 45,000 but there are 18,000 more excess deaths, so the official number is almost certainly an under count rather than an over count.

[ichkeria]

It folows from that, if correct, that there should be LESS deaths subsequently, because many of the people who might have died of Covid, or flu, before, will already have done so.
I see that in Norway undertakers are going out of business as the measures taken there have actually meant LESS deaths than normal.
Kind of the other side of the coin - full half of the bottle (unless you're a Norwegian undertaker of course) or whatever.

[ichkeria]

Turkmenistan has remained miraculously virus-free: however the goverment there is now advising the wearing of face masks due to "dust". How unlucky can you get ...

[KARL]

Jim, I take the figures at face value because otherwise there is no room for consideration/assessment/evaluation/discussion. Maybe/sort of/near enough/part right/half wrong/completely wrong/let's guess instead - any/all of these are of no help and no grounds for anything but speculation. I know the approach I use is very uncomfortable for anyone who prefers a choice as to what to start out from and what to arrive at, to adjust/fudge toward a cozier truth. The point being that either the authorities stand fully by their figures or come out and say "We haven't a clue so cannot produce worthwhile statistics that anyone can take seriously". The latter has not happened so the former must be assumed, they and we have no choice but to use what they insist is correct. The outcome leads to my views on the debacle and I cannot see credible replacement statistics bringing a serious change to things.

[davebro]

BBC - "As the Covid-19 map gets covered by growing red circles, several countries still haven't registered a single case of infection, including one of the most repressive states in the world - Turkmenistan. Many experts are concerned its government may be hiding the truth, which could disrupt attempts to end the pandemic."